Publication Abstracts

Tebaldi et al. 2022, submitted

Tebaldi, C., G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. Drijfhout, J. Dunne, T.L. Edwards, E. Fischer, J.C. Fyfe, R. Jones, R.E. Kopp, C. Koven, G. Krinner, F. Otto, A.C. Ruane, S.I. Seneviratne, J. Sillmann, S. Szopa, and Z. Prodromos, 2022: The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective. Clim. Risk Manag., submitted.

We look at Representative Key Risks (RKRs) through the lens of their hazard components, i.e., drawing on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. The WGI assessment of these hazards was deliberately aimed at facilitating risk assessment by WGII, and was synthesized in a table specifically intended as a handshake to the RKR discussion. We expand upon the table content in this paper.

We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors' assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible.

For some of these quantities — like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover — a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others — like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather — the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes — like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics — large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others — like ocean pH and air pollution — the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of detrimental impacts on human and natural systems.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Tebaldi, C. and Aðalgeirsdóttir, G. and Drijfhout, S. and Dunne, J. and Edwards, T. L. and Fischer, E. and Fyfe, J. C. and Jones, R. and Kopp, R. E. and Koven, C. and Krinner, G. and Otto, F. and Ruane, A. C. and Seneviratne, S. I. and Sillmann, J. and Szopa, S. and Prodromos, Z.},
  title={The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective},
  journal={Clim. Risk Manag.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}

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RIS Citation

ID  - te03200x
AU  - Tebaldi, C.
AU  - Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.
AU  - Drijfhout, S.
AU  - Dunne, J.
AU  - Edwards, T. L.
AU  - Fischer, E.
AU  - Fyfe, J. C.
AU  - Jones, R.
AU  - Kopp, R. E.
AU  - Koven, C.
AU  - Krinner, G.
AU  - Otto, F.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Seneviratne, S. I.
AU  - Sillmann, J.
AU  - Szopa, S.
AU  - Prodromos, Z.
PY  - 2022
TI  - The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective
JA  - Clim. Risk Manag.
ER  -

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