Publication Abstracts
Schmidt et al. 2023
, G.S. Jones, and J.J. Kennedy, 2023: Comment on "Advanced testing of low, medium, and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m" by N. Scafetta (2022). Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL102530, doi:10.1029/2022GL102530.
Scafetta (2022) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that "all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming" is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion "that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement" is also not sustainable.
Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]
BibTeX Citation
@article{sc05800h,
author={Schmidt, G. A. and Jones, G. S. and Kennedy, J. J.},
title={Comment on "Advanced testing of low, medium, and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m" by N. Scafetta (2022)},
year={2023},
journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume={50},
pages={e2022GL102530},
doi={10.1029/2022GL102530},
}
[ Close ]
RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - sc05800h AU - Schmidt, G. A. AU - Jones, G. S. AU - Kennedy, J. J. PY - 2023 TI - Comment on "Advanced testing of low, medium, and high ECS CMIP6 GCM simulations versus ERA5-T2m" by N. Scafetta (2022) JA - Geophys. Res. Lett. VL - 50 SP - e2022GL102530 DO - 10.1029/2022GL102530 ER -
[ Close ]
