Publication Abstracts

Mariotti et al. 2024

Mariotti, A., D.C. Bader, S.E. Bauer, G. Danabasoglu, J.P.P. Dunne, B. Gross, L.R. Leung, S. Pawson, W.M Putman, V. Ramaswamy, G.A. Schmidt, and V. Tallapragada, 2024: Envisioning U.S. climate predictions and projections to meet new challenges. Earth's Future, 12, no. 6, e2023EF004187, doi:10.1029/2023EF004187.

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Mariotti, A. and Bader, D. C. and Bauer, S. E. and Danabasoglu, G. and Dunne, J. P. P. and Gross, B. and Leung, L. R. and Pawson, S. and Putman, W. M and Ramaswamy, V. and Schmidt, G. A. and Tallapragada, V.},
  title={Envisioning U.S. climate predictions and projections to meet new challenges},
  journal={Earth's Future},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ma05710t
AU  - Mariotti, A.
AU  - Bader, D. C.
AU  - Bauer, S. E.
AU  - Danabasoglu, G.
AU  - Dunne, J. P. P.
AU  - Gross, B.
AU  - Leung, L. R.
AU  - Pawson, S.
AU  - Putman, W. M
AU  - Ramaswamy, V.
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Tallapragada, V.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Envisioning U.S. climate predictions and projections to meet new challenges
JA  - Earth's Future
JO  - Earth's Future
VL  - 12
IS  - 6
SP  - e2023EF004187
DO  - 10.1029/2023EF004187
ER  -

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