Publication Abstracts
Jiang et al. 2023
Jiang, X., H. Su, J.H. Jiang, J.D. Neelin, L. Wu, Y. Tsushima, and , 2023: Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models. Nat. Commun., 14, no. 1, 5586, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0.
A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.
Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]
BibTeX Citation
@article{ji08300m,
author={Jiang, X. and Su, H. and Jiang, J. H. and Neelin, J. D. and Wu, L. and Tsushima, Y. and Elsaesser, G.},
title={Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models},
year={2023},
journal={Nature Communication},
volume={14},
number={1},
pages={5586},
doi={10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0},
}
[ Close ]
RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ji08300m AU - Jiang, X. AU - Su, H. AU - Jiang, J. H. AU - Neelin, J. D. AU - Wu, L. AU - Tsushima, Y. AU - Elsaesser, G. PY - 2023 TI - Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models JA - Nat. Commun. JO - Nature Communication VL - 14 IS - 1 SP - 5586 DO - 10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0 ER -
[ Close ]
