Publication Abstracts
Brovkin et al. 2021
Brovkin, V., E. Brook, J.W. Williams, S. Bathiany, T.M. Lenton, M. Barton, R.M. DeConto, J.F. Donges, A. Ganopolski, J. McManus, S. Praetorius, A. de Vernal, A. Abe-Ouchi, H. Cheng, M. Claussen, M. Crucifix, G. Gallopín, V. Iglesias, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kleinen, F. Lambert, S. van der Leeuw, , M.-F. Loutre, D. McGee, K. Rehfeld, R. Rhodes, A.W.R. Seddon, M.H. Trauth, L. Vanderveken, and Z. Yu, 2021: Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system. Nat. Geosci., 14, no. 8, 550-558, doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5.
The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{br01400p,
author={Brovkin, V. and Brook, E. and Williams, J. W. and Bathiany, S. and Lenton, T. M. and Barton, M. and DeConto, R. M. and Donges, J. F. and Ganopolski, A. and McManus, J. and Praetorius, S. and de Vernal, A. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Cheng, H. and Claussen, M. and Crucifix, M. and Gallopín, G. and Iglesias, V. and Kaufman, D. S. and Kleinen, T. and Lambert, F. and van der Leeuw, S. and Liddy, H. and Loutre, M.-F. and McGee, D. and Rehfeld, K. and Rhodes, R. and Seddon, A. W. R. and Trauth, M. H. and Vanderveken, L. and Yu, Z.},
title={Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system},
year={2021},
journal={Nature Geoscience},
volume={14},
number={8},
pages={550--558},
doi={10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - br01400p AU - Brovkin, V. AU - Brook, E. AU - Williams, J. W. AU - Bathiany, S. AU - Lenton, T. M. AU - Barton, M. AU - DeConto, R. M. AU - Donges, J. F. AU - Ganopolski, A. AU - McManus, J. AU - Praetorius, S. AU - de Vernal, A. AU - Abe-Ouchi, A. AU - Cheng, H. AU - Claussen, M. AU - Crucifix, M. AU - Gallopín, G. AU - Iglesias, V. AU - Kaufman, D. S. AU - Kleinen, T. AU - Lambert, F. AU - van der Leeuw, S. AU - Liddy, H. AU - Loutre, M.-F. AU - McGee, D. AU - Rehfeld, K. AU - Rhodes, R. AU - Seddon, A. W. R. AU - Trauth, M. H. AU - Vanderveken, L. AU - Yu, Z. PY - 2021 TI - Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system JA - Nat. Geosci. JO - Nature Geoscience VL - 14 IS - 8 SP - 550 EP - 558 DO - 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5 ER -
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