Author Bibliographies

Publications by Jonas Jägermeyr

This citation list includes papers published while the author has been on staff at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It may include some publications based on research conducted prior to their having joined the institute staff.

Submitted / In Review

Frieler, K., J. Volkholz, S. Lange, J. Schewe, M. Mengel, M.R. Rivas López, C. Otto, C.P.O. Reyer, D.N. Karger, J.T. Malle, S. Treu, C. Menz, J.L. Blanchard, C.S. Harrison, C.M. Petrik, T.D. Eddy, K. Ortega-Cisneros, C. Novaglio, Y. Rousseau, R.A. Watson, C. Stock, X. Liu, R. Heneghan, D. Tittensor, O. Maury, M. Büchner, T. Vogt, T. Wang, F. Sun, I.J. Sauer, J. Koch, I. Vanderkelen, J. Jägermeyr, C. Müller, J. Klar, I.D. Vega del Valle, G. Lasslop, S. Chadburn, E. Burke, A. Gallego-Sala, N. Smith, J. Chang, S. Hantson, C. Burton, A. Gädeke, F. Li, S.N. Gosling, H. Müller Schmied, F. Hattermann, J. Wang, F. Yao, T. Hickler, R. Marcé, D. Pierson, W. Thiery, D. Mercado-Bettín, M. Forrest, and M. Bechtold, 2023: Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geosci. Model Dev., submitted.

Guarin, J.R., J. Jägermeyr, E.A. Ainsworth, F.A.A. Oliveira, S. Asseng, K. Boote, J. Elliott, L. Emberson, I. Foster, G. Hoogenboom, D. Kelly, A.C. Ruane, and K. Sharps, 2023: Modeling the effects of tropospheric ozone on the growth and yield of global staple crops with DSSAT v4.8.0. Geosci. Model. Dev., submitted, doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-1540.

Liu, W., T. Ye, C. Müller, J. Jägermeyr, J.A. Franke, H. Stephens, and S. Chen, 2023: The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: Responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations. Geosci. Model Dev., submitted, doi:10.5194/gmd-2023-74.

Müller, C., J. Jägermeyr, J.A. Franke, A.C. Ruane, J. Balkovic, P. Ciais, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, T. Hank, M. Hoffmannn, C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, N. Khabarov, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, X. Wang, K. Williams, F. Zabel, and J.W. Elliott, 2023: Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation. Earth's Future, submitted.

2023

Buckland, C.E., D.S.G. Thomas, J. Jägermeyr, C. Müller, and A.C. Smith, 2023: Drought-tolerant succulent plants as an alternative crop under future global warming scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. GCB Bioenergy, 15, no. 10, 1287-1308, doi:10.1111/gcbb.13095.

Fei, C., J. Jägermeyr, B. McCarl, E. Mencos Contreras, C. Mutter, M. Phillips, A.C. Ruane, M.C. Sarofim, P. Schultz, and A. Vargo, 2023: Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market. Anthropocene, 100386, doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100386.

Kornhuber, K., C. Lesk, C.F. Schleussner, J. Jägermeyr, P. Pfleiderer, and R.M. Horton, 2023: Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections. Nat. Commun., 14, no. 1, 3528, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7.

Liu, K., M.T. Harrison, H. Yan, D.L. Liu, H. Meinke, G. Hoogenboom, B. Wang, B. Peng, K. Guan, J. Jägermeyr, E. Wang, F. Zhang, X. Yin, S. Archontoulis, L. Nie, A. Badea, J. Man, D Wallach, J. Zhao, A. Benjumea, Y. Zhang, W. Wang, S. Fahad, F. Tao, Z. Zhang, R. Rötter, Y. Yuan, M. Zhu, P. Dai, J. Nie, Y. Yang, X. Tian, and M. Zhou, 2023: Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nat. Commun., 14, 765, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4.

McDermid, S., M. Nocco, P. Lawston-Parker, J. Keune, Y. Pokhrel, M. Jain, J. Jägermeyr, L. Brocca, C. Massari, A.D. Jones, P. Vahmani, W. Thiery, Y. Yao, A. Bell, L. Chen, W. Dorigo, N. Hanasaki, S. Jasechko, M.-H. Lo, R. Mahmood, V. Mishra, N.D. Mueller, D. Niyogi, S.S. Rabin, L. Sloat, Y. Wada, L. Zappa, F. Chen, B.I. Cook, H. Kim, D. Lombardozzi, J. Polcher, D. Ryu, J. Santanello, Y. Satoh, S. Seneviratne, D. Singh, and T. Yokohata, 2023: Irrigation in the Earth system. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, no. 7, 435-453, doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00438-5.

Molina Bacca, E., M. Stevanović, L. Bodirsky, K. Karstens, D. Meng, C. Chen, D. Leip, C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Heinke, and J. Jägermeyr, 2023: Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 284, doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.

2022

Bo, Y., J. Jägermeyr, Z. Yin, Y. Jiang, J. Xu, H. Liang, and F. Zhou, 2022: Global benefits of non-continuous flooding to reduce greenhouse gases and irrigation water use without rice yield penalty. Glob. Change Biol., 28, no. 11, 3636-3650, doi:10.1111/gcb.16132.

Chrysafi, A., V. Virkki, M. Jalava, V. Sandström, J. Piipponen, M. Porkka, J.S. Lade, K. La Mere, L. Wang-Erlandsson, L. Scherer, S.L. Andersen, E. Bennett, A.K. Brauman, S.G. Cooper, A. De Palma, P. Döll, S.A. Downing, C.T. DuBois, I. Fetzer, E.A. Fulton, D. Gerten, H. Jaafar, J. Jägermeyr, F. Jaramillo, M. Jung, H. Kahiluoto, L. Lassaletta, W.A. Mackay, D. Mason-D'Croz, M.M. Mekonnen, K.L. Nash, A.V. Pastor, N. Ramankutty, B. Ridoutt, S. Siebert, B.I. Simmons, A. Staal, Z. Sun, A. Tobian, A. Usubiaga-Liaño, R.J. Van der Ent, A. Van Soesbergen, P.H. Verburg, Y. Wada, S. Zipper, and M. Kummu, 2022: Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitationion. Nat. Sustain., 5, no. 10, 830-842, doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6.

Cinner, J.E., I.R. Caldwell, L. Thiault, J. Ben, J.L. Blanchard, M. Coll, A. Diedrich, T.D. Eddy, J.D. Everett, C. Folberth, D. Gascuel, J. Guiet, G.G. Gurney, R.F. Heneghan, J. Jägermeyr, N. Jiddawi, R. Lahari, J. Kuange, W. Liu, O. Maury, C. Müller, C. Novaglio, J. Palacios-Abrantes, C.M. Petrik, A. Rabearisoa, D.P. Tittensor, A. Wamukota, and R. Pollnac, 2022: Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat. Commun., 13, no. 1, 3530, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4.

Franke, J.A., C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Elliott, C. Folberth, C. Gardner, T. Hank, R.C. Izaurralde, J. Jägermeyr, C. Jones, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, A.C. Ruane, H. Stephens, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2022: Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Glob. Change Biol., 28, no. 1, 167-181, doi:10.1111/gcb.15868.

Hedlund, J., H. Carlsen, S. Croft, C. West, Ö. Bodin, E. Stokeld, J. Jägermeyr, and C. Müller, 2022: Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 12, 124040, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca68b.

Heinicke, S., K. Frieler, J. Jägermeyr, and M. Mengel, 2022: Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 4, 044026, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e.

Hochman, G., H. Zhang, L. Xia, A. Robock, S. Aleti, D. van der Mensbrugghe, and J. Jägermeyr, 2022: Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 5, 054003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c7.

Lesk, C., W. Anderson, A. Rigden, O. Coast, J. Jägermeyr, S. McDermid, K.F. Davis, and M. Konar, 2022: Compound heat and moisture extreme impacts on global crop yields under climate change. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, no. 12, 872-889, doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00368-8.

Minoli, S., J. Jägermeyr, S. Asseng, A. Urfels, and C. Müller, 2022: Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change. Nat. Commun., 13, no. 1, 7079, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5.

Nkwasa, A., C.J. Chawanda, J. Jägermeyr, and A. van Griensven, 2022: Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, no. 1, 71-89, doi:10.5194/hess-26-71-2022.

Xia, L., A. Robock, K. Scherrer, C. Harrison, B.L. Bodirsky, I. Weindl, J. Jägermeyr, C. Bardeen, O.B. Toon, and R. Heneghan, 2022: Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nat. Food, 3, no. 8, 586-596, doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0.

Yao, Y., I. Vanderkelen, D. Lombardozzi, S. Swenson, D. Lawrence, J. Jägermeyr, L. Grant, and W. Thiery, 2022: Implementation and evaluation of irrigation techniques in the Community Land Model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, no. 12, e2022MS003074, doi:10.1029/2022MS003074.

2021

Bardeen, C.G., D.E. Kinnison, O.B. Toon, M.J. Mills, F. Vitt, L. Xia, J. Jägermeyr, N.S. Lovenduski, K.J.N. Scherrer, M. Clyne, and A. Robock, 2021: Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, no. 18, e2021JD035079, doi:10.1029/2021JD035079.

Brás, T.A., J. Seixas, N. Carvalhais, and J. Jägermeyr, 2021: Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 6, 065012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf004.

Falkendal, T., C. Otto, J. Schewe, J. Jägermeyr, M. Konar, M. Kummu, B. Watkins, and M.J. Puma, 2021: Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries. Nat. Food, 2, no. 1, 11-14, doi:10.1038/s43016-020-00211-7.

Jägermeyr, J., C. Müller, A.C. Ruane, J. Elliott, J. Balkovic, O. Castillo, B. Faye, I. Foster, C. Folberth, J.A. Franke, K. Fuchs, J. Guarin, J. Heinke, G. Hoogenboom, T. Iizumi, A.K. Kain, D. Kelly, N. Khabarov, S. Lange, T.-S. Lin, W. Liu, O. Mialyk, S. Minoli, E.J. Moyer, M. Okada, M. Phillips, C. Porter, S. Rabin, C. Scheer, J.M. Schneider, J.F. Schyns, R. Skalsky, A. Smerald, T. Stella, H. Stephens, H. Webber, F. Zabel, and C. Rosenzweig, 2021: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nat. Food, 2, no. 11, 873-885, doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y.

Liu, W., T. Ye, J. Jägermeyr, C. Müller, S. Chen, X. Liu, and P. Shi, 2021: Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 9, 094045, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1fbb.

Müller, C., J. Franke, J. Jägermeyr, A.C. Ruane, J. Elliott, E. Moyer, J. Heinke, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. Francois, T. Hank, R. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, W. Liu, S. Olin, T. Pugh, K. Williams, and F. Zabel, 2021: Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 3, 034040, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc.

Ruane, A.C., M. Phillips, C. Müller, J. Elliott, J. Jägermeyr, A. Arneth, J. Balkovic, D. Deryng, C. Folberth, T. Iizumi, R.C. Izaurralde, N. Khabarov, P. Lawrence, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, C. Rosenzweig, G. Sakurai, E. Schmid, B. Sultan, X. Wang, A. de Wit, and H. Yang, 2021: Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 300, 108313, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313.

Siderius, C., H. Biemans, D. Conway, W.W. Immerzeel, J. Jägermeyr, and B. Ahmad, 2021: Financial feasibility of water conservation in agriculture. Earth's Future, 9, no. 3, e2020EF001726, doi:10.1029/2020EF001726.

Thiery, W., J. Lange, S. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, L. Gudmundsson, S.I. Seneviratne, M. Andrijevic, K. Frieler, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, D.N. Bresch, F. Zhao, S.N. Willner, M. Büchner, J. Volkholz, N. Bauer, J. Chang, P. Ciais, M. Dury, L. François, M. Grillakis, S.N. Gosling, N. Hanasaki, T. Hickler, V. Huber, A. Ito, J. Jägermeyr, N. Khabarov, A. Koutroulis, W. Liu, W. Lutz, M. Mengel, C. Müller, S. Ostberg, C.P.O. Reyer, T. Stacke, and Y. Wada, 2021: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374, no. 6564, 158-160, doi:10.1126/science.abi7339.

Wang, X., C. Müller, J. Elliot, N.D. Mueller, P. Ciais, J. Jägermeyr, J. Gerber, P. Dumas, C. Wang, H. Yang, L. Li, D. Deryng, C. Folberth, W. Liu, D. Makowski, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, E. Schmid, S. Jeong, F. Zhou, and S. Piao, 2021: Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nat. Commun., 12, no. 1, 1235, doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5.

Zabel, F., C. Müller, J. Elliott, S. Minoli, J. Jägermeyr, J.M. Schneider, J.A. Franke, E. Moyer, C. Folberth, M. Dury, L. Francois, W. Liu, T.A. Pugh, S. Olin, S.S. Rabin, W. Mauser, T. Hank, and A.C. Ruane, 2021: Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Glob. Change Biol., 27, no. 16, 3870-3882, doi:10.1111/gcb.15649.

2020

Franke, J., C. Müller, J. Elliott, A.C. Ruane, J. Jägermeyr, A. Snyder, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. François, T. Hank, R.C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, C. Jones, M. Li, W. Liu, S. Olin, M. Phillips, T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, K. Williams, Z. Wang, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2020: The GGCMI phase II emulators: Global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, no. 9, 3995-4018, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020.

Franke, J., C. Müller, J. Elliott, A. Ruane, J. Jägermeyr, J. Balkovic, P. Ciais, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. François, T. Hank, M. Hoffmann, C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, C. Jones, N. Khabarov, M. Koch, M. Li, W. Liu, S. Olin, M. Phillips, T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, X. Wang, K. Williams, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2020: The GGCMI Phase II experiment: Global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, no. 5, 2315-2336, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020.

Gerten, D., V. Heck, J. Jägermeyr, B.L. Bodirsky, I. Fetzer, M. Jalava, M. Kummu, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, S. Schaphoff, and H.J. Schellnhuber, 2020: Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nat. Sustain., 3, no. 3, 200-208, doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1.

Huang, G., A.Y. Heokstra, M.S. Krol, A. Galindo, J. Jägermeyr, C. Yu, and R. Wang, 2020: Water-saving agriculture can deliver deep water cuts for China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl., 154, 104578, doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104578.

Jägermeyr, J., 2020: Agriculture's historic twin-challenge towards sustainable water use and food supply for all. Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 4, 35, doi:10.3389/fsufs.2020.00035.

Jägermeyr, J., A. Robock, J. Elliott, C. Müller, L. Xia, N. Khabarov, C. Folberth, E. Schmid, W. Liu, F. Zabel, S.S. Rabin, M.J. Puma, A.C. Heslin, J. Franke, I. Foster, S. Asseng, C.G. Bardeen, O.B. Toon, and C. Rosenzweig, 2020: A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, no. 13, 7071-7081, doi:10.1073/pnas.1919049117.

Lange, S., J. Volkholz, T. Geiger, F. Zhao, I. Vega, T. Veldkamp, C.P.O. Reyer, L. Warszawski, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, J. Schewe, D.N. Bresch, M. Büchner, J. Chang, P. Ciais, M. Dury, K. Emanuel, C. Folberth, D. Gerten, S.N. Gosling, M. Grillakis, N. Hanasaki, A.-J. Henrot, T. Hickler, Y. Honda, A. Ito, N. Khabarov, A. Koutroulis, W. Liu, C. Müller, K. Nishina, S. Ostberg, H. Müller Schmied, S.I. Seneviratne, T. Stacke, J. Steinkamp, W. Thiery, Y. Wada, S. Willner, H. Yang, M. Yoshikawa, C. Yue, and K. Frieler, 2020: Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. Earth's Future, 8, no. 12, e2020EF001616, doi:10.1029/2020EF001616.

Schauberger, B., J. Jägermeyr, and C. Gornott, 2020: A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources. Eur. J. Agron., 120, 126153, doi:10.1016/j.eja.2020.126153.

Scherrer, K.J.N., C.S. Harrison, R.F. Heneghan, E. Galbraith, C.G. Bardeen, J. Coupe, J. Jägermeyr, N.S. Lovenduski, A. Luna, A. Robock, J. Stevens, S. Stevenson, O.B. Toon, and L. Xia, 2020: Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, no. 47, 29748-29758, doi:10.1073/pnas.2008256117.

Zhai, R., F. Tao, U. Lall, B. Fu, J. Elliott, and J. Jägermeyr, 2020: Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5°C warming. Earth's Future, 8, no. 7, e2019EF001398, doi:10.1029/2019EF001398.

2019

Brás, M.A., J. Jägermeyr, and J. Seixas, 2019: Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries. Food Secur., 11, no. 6, 1373-1393, doi:10.1007/s12571-019-00975-2.

Minoli, S., C. Müller, J. Elliott, A.C. Ruane, J. Jägermeyr, F. Zabel, M. Dury, C. Folberth, L. Francois, T. Hank, I. Jacquemin, W. Liu, S. Olin, and T.A.M. Pugh, 2019: Global response patterns of major rainfed crops to adaptation by maintaining current growing periods and irrigation. Earth's Future, 7, no. 12, 1464-1480, doi:10.1029/2018EF001130.

Stenzel, F., D. Gerten, C. Werner, and J. Jägermeyr, 2019: Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, no. 8, 084001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b4b.

2018

Jägermeyr, J., and K. Frieler, 2018: Spatial variations in crop growing seasons pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields. Sci. Adv., 4, no. 11, eaat4517, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat4517.

2017

Frieler, K., S. Lange, F. Piontek, C.P.O. Reyer, J. Schewe, L. Warszawski, F. Zhao, L. Chini, S. Denvil, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, K. Halladay, G. Hurtt, M. Mengel, D. Murakami, S. Ostberg, A. Popp, R. Riva, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, J. Volkholz, E. Burke, P. Ciais, K. Ebi, T.D. Eddy, J. Elliott, E. Galbraith, S.N. Gosling, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, C. Hof, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, V. Krysanova, R. Marcé, H. Müller Schmied, I. Mouratiadou, D. Pierson, D.P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, M.F. Biber, R.A. Betts, B.L. Bodirsky, D. Deryng, S. Frolking, C.D. Jones, H.K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, R. Sahajpal, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, and Y. Yamagata, 2017: Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming — Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321-4345, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017.

Kummu, M., M. Fader, D. Gerten, J.H.A. Guillaume, M. Jalava, J. Jägermeyr, S. Pfister, M. Porkka, S. Siebert, and O. Varis, 2017: Bringing it all together: Linking measures to secure nations' food supply. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 29, 98-117, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.006.

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