Publication Abstracts

Zommers et al. 2020

Zommers, Z., P. Marbaix, A. Fischlin, Z.Z. Ibrahim, S. Grant, A.K. Magnan, H.-O. Pörtner, M. Howden, K. Calvin, K. Warner, W. Thiery, Z. Sebesvari, E.L. Davin, J.P. Evans, C. Rosenzweig, B.C. O'Neill, A. Patwardhan, R. Warren, M. van Aalst, and M. Hulbert, 2020: Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., early on-line, doi:10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the "burning embers" diagram. Burning embers were first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate climate change-related impacts and risks to various systems and sectors. In these diagrams, colour transitions show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of climate change indicated by increasing levels of global mean temperature. Here we review the history and evolution of the burning embers diagram and the associated reason for concern framework describing the methodological approach to risk assessment and construction of the diagram. We highlight relevant expert elicitation methods in other fields and detail recent methodological advances in IPCC Special Reports aiming to reduce the risk of potential bias in the expert judgment, improve the transparency of the assessment and account for adaptation. We recommend the use of an explicit, transparent, and systematic process of expert elicitation in the production of burning embers diagrams to enhance their quality, comparability, and credibility in future assessments.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{zo01000b,
  author={Zommers, Z. and Marbaix, P. and Fischlin, A. and Ibrahim, Z. Z. and Grant, S. and Magnan, A. K. and Pörtner, H.-O. and Howden, M. and Calvin, K. and Warner, K. and Thiery, W. and Sebesvari, Z. and Davin, E. L. and Evans, J. P. and Rosenzweig, C. and O'Neill, B. C. and Patwardhan, A. and Warren, R. and van Aalst, M. and Hulbert, M.},
  title={Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments},
  year={2020},
  journal={Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.},
  doi={10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - zo01000b
AU  - Zommers, Z.
AU  - Marbaix, P.
AU  - Fischlin, A.
AU  - Ibrahim, Z. Z.
AU  - Grant, S.
AU  - Magnan, A. K.
AU  - Pörtner, H.-O.
AU  - Howden, M.
AU  - Calvin, K.
AU  - Warner, K.
AU  - Thiery, W.
AU  - Sebesvari, Z.
AU  - Davin, E. L.
AU  - Evans, J. P.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - O'Neill, B. C.
AU  - Patwardhan, A.
AU  - Warren, R.
AU  - van Aalst, M.
AU  - Hulbert, M.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments
JA  - Nat. Rev. Earth Environ.
DO  - 10.1038/s43017-020-0088-0
ER  -

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