Publication Abstracts

Zhao et al. 2017

Zhao, C., B. Liu, S. Piao, X. Wang, D.B. Lobell, Y. Huang, M. Huang, Y. Yao, S. Bassu, P. Ciais, J.-L. Durand, J. Elliott, F. Ewert, I.A. Janssens, T. Li, E. Lin, Q. Liu, P. Martre, C. Müller, S. Peng, J. Peñuelas, A.C. Ruane, D. Wallach, T. Wang, D. Wu, Z. Liu, Y. Zhu, Z. Zhu, and S. Asseng, 2017: Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 114, no. 35, 9326-9331, doi:10.1073/pnas.1701762114.

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{zh09200d,
  author={Zhao, C. and Liu, B. and Piao, S. and Wang, X. and Lobell, D. B. and Huang, Y. and Huang, M. and Yao, Y. and Bassu, S. and Ciais, P. and Durand, J.-L. and Elliott, J. and Ewert, F. and Janssens, I. A. and Li, T. and Lin, E. and Liu, Q. and Martre, P. and Müller, C. and Peng, S. and Peñuelas, J. and Ruane, A. C. and Wallach, D. and Wang, T. and Wu, D. and Liu, Z. and Zhu, Y. and Zhu, Z. and Asseng, S.},
  title={Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates},
  year={2017},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={114},
  number={35},
  pages={9326--9331},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.1701762114},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - zh09200d
AU  - Zhao, C.
AU  - Liu, B.
AU  - Piao, S.
AU  - Wang, X.
AU  - Lobell, D. B.
AU  - Huang, Y.
AU  - Huang, M.
AU  - Yao, Y.
AU  - Bassu, S.
AU  - Ciais, P.
AU  - Durand, J.-L.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Janssens, I. A.
AU  - Li, T.
AU  - Lin, E.
AU  - Liu, Q.
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Peng, S.
AU  - Peñuelas, J.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Wang, T.
AU  - Wu, D.
AU  - Liu, Z.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
AU  - Zhu, Z.
AU  - Asseng, S.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 114
IS  - 35
SP  - 9326
EP  - 9331
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1701762114
ER  -

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