Publication Abstracts

Zhang et al. 2024

Zhang, X., D.W. Waugh, I. Mitevski, C. Orbe, and L.M. Polvani, 2024: Decreased Northern Hemisphere precipitation from consecutive CO2 doublings is associated with significant AMOC weakening. Environ. Res. Clim., 3, no. 4, 041005, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad929c.

Previous studies found many climate properties such as northern hemisphere (NH) surface temperature and precipitation respond non-monotonically when CO2 is increased from 1× to 8×CO2 relative to pre-industrial levels. Here, we explore the robustness of the non-monotonicity in the NH precipitation response in 11 coupled climate models. Eight models show a decrease in NH precipitation under repeated CO2 doubling, indicating that the non-monotonic response is a common but not universal result. Although common, the critical CO2 level where the NH precipitation decrease first occurs differs widely across models, ranging from 2×CO2 to 8×CO2. These models also show a prominent weakening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at the same critical CO2 level, with the AMOC weakening leading the precipitation decrease. The sensitivities of NH precipitation and the AMOC to CO2 doublings are positively correlated, especially when the AMOC weakens beyond 10 Sv. This suggests that the differences in models' AMOC response can explain their contrasting NH precipitation responses, where models with a large AMOC weakening have decreased NH precipitation. Regionally, this decrease in NH precipitation is the most prominent over the North Atlantic, Europe and the tropical Pacific. Our results suggest that special care must be taken with the use of pattern scaling to inform regional climate decision-making.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{zh08500g,
  author={Zhang, X. and Waugh, D. W. and Mitevski, I. and Orbe, C. and Polvani, L. M.},
  title={Decreased Northern Hemisphere precipitation from consecutive CO2 doublings is associated with significant AMOC weakening},
  year={2024},
  journal={Environ. Res. Clim.},
  volume={3},
  number={4},
  pages={041005},
  doi={10.1088/2752-5295/ad929c},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - zh08500g
AU  - Zhang, X.
AU  - Waugh, D. W.
AU  - Mitevski, I.
AU  - Orbe, C.
AU  - Polvani, L. M.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Decreased Northern Hemisphere precipitation from consecutive CO2 doublings is associated with significant AMOC weakening
JA  - Environ. Res. Clim.
VL  - 3
IS  - 4
SP  - 041005
DO  - 10.1088/2752-5295/ad929c
ER  -

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