Publication Abstracts

Zhai et al. 2020

Zhai, R., F. Tao, U. Lall, B. Fu, J. Elliott, and J. Jägermeyr, 2020: Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5°C warming. Earth's Future, 8, no. 7, e2019EF001398, doi:10.1029/2019EF001398.

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well-established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity; VIC) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western U.S., Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{zh05300j,
  author={Zhai, R. and Tao, F. and Lall, U. and Fu, B. and Elliott, J. and Jägermeyr, J.},
  title={Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5°C warming},
  year={2020},
  journal={Earth's Future},
  volume={8},
  number={7},
  pages={e2019EF001398},
  doi={10.1029/2019EF001398},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - zh05300j
AU  - Zhai, R.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Lall, U.
AU  - Fu, B.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5°C warming
JA  - Earth's Future
JO  - Earth's Future
VL  - 8
IS  - 7
SP  - e2019EF001398
DO  - 10.1029/2019EF001398
ER  -

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