Publication Abstracts

Zabel et al. 2021

Zabel, F., C. Müller, J. Elliott, S. Minoli, J. Jägermeyr, J.M. Schneider, J.A. Franke, E. Moyer, C. Folberth, M. Dury, L. Francois, W. Liu, T.A. Pugh, S. Olin, S.S. Rabin, W. Mauser, T. Hank, and A.C. Ruane, 2021: Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Glob. Change Biol., early on-line, doi:10.1111/gcb.15649.

Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{za01100l,
  author={Zabel, F. and Müller, C. and Elliott, J. and Minoli, S. and Jägermeyr, J. and Schneider, J. M. and Franke, J. A. and Moyer, E. and Folberth, C. and Dury, M. and Francois, L. and Liu, W. and Pugh, T. A. and Olin, S. and Rabin, S. S. and Mauser, W. and Hank, T. and Ruane, A. C.},
  title={Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties},
  year={2021},
  journal={Glob. Change Biol.},
  doi={10.1111/gcb.15649},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - za01100l
AU  - Zabel, F.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Schneider, J. M.
AU  - Franke, J. A.
AU  - Moyer, E.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Dury, M.
AU  - Francois, L.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Pugh, T. A.
AU  - Olin, S.
AU  - Rabin, S. S.
AU  - Mauser, W.
AU  - Hank, T.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
PY  - 2021
TI  - Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties
JA  - Glob. Change Biol.
DO  - 10.1111/gcb.15649
ER  -

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