Publication Abstracts

Westervelt et al. 2019

Westervelt, D.M., C. Ma, M. He, A.M. Fiore, P.L. Kinney, M. Kioumourtzoglou, S. Wang, J. Xing, D. Ding, and Correa Gustavo, 2019: Mid-21st century ozone air quality and health burden in China under emissions scenarios and climate change. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, no. 7, 074030, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab260b.

China still suffers from extremely poor air quality, and despite modest emissions reductions of air pollutants in recent years, the outlook for future air quality in China is uncertain. We explore the impact of two disparate 2050 emissions scenarios relative to 2015 in the context of a changing climate with the GFDL-AM3 chemistry-climate model. We simulate 2015 versus 2050 climate by setting global sea surface temperature and sea ice cover to the average over 2010-2019 and 2046-2055, respectively, from a three-member ensemble of GFDL coupled climate model simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario. By the 2050s, MDA8 ozone increases by 8-12 ppbv in CLE in which emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are projected to increase slightly (10%), and decrease by 16-20 ppb in MFR in which emissions of NOx and anthropogenic VOCs are projected to decline by 60%. We estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality by holding emissions of ozone (and aerosol) precursors fixed at 2015 levels while setting sea surface temperatures and sea ice to 2050 conditions. The model simulates an annual mean increase in surface ozone due to climate change of up to 8 ppbv ozone throughout China by the 2050s, which results in an additional 62,000 premature deaths in China as compared to 330,000 fewer premature deaths by the 2050s under MFR. In southwestern China, the stratospheric ozone contribution to surface air and influence of foreign emissions enhance surface ozone levels by about 9-12 ppbv each during springtime. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of emissions controls in reducing the health burden in China due to air pollution, and also the potential for climate change and rising global emissions to offset, at least partially, some of the ozone decreases attained with regional emission reductions in China.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{we07200b,
  author={Westervelt, D. M. and Ma, C. and He, M. and Fiore, A. M. and Kinney, P. L. and Kioumourtzoglou, M. and Wang, S. and Xing, J. and Ding, D. and Correa Gustavo},
  title={Mid-21st century ozone air quality and health burden in China under emissions scenarios and climate change},
  year={2019},
  journal={Environ. Res. Lett.},
  volume={14},
  number={7},
  pages={074030},
  doi={10.1088/1748-9326/ab260b},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - we07200b
AU  - Westervelt, D. M.
AU  - Ma, C.
AU  - He, M.
AU  - Fiore, A. M.
AU  - Kinney, P. L.
AU  - Kioumourtzoglou, M.
AU  - Wang, S.
AU  - Xing, J.
AU  - Ding, D.
AU  - Correa Gustavo
PY  - 2019
TI  - Mid-21st century ozone air quality and health burden in China under emissions scenarios and climate change
JA  - Environ. Res. Lett.
VL  - 14
IS  - 7
SP  - 074030
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/ab260b
ER  -

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