Publication Abstracts

Wargan et al. 2018

Wargan, K., C. Orbe, S. Pawson, J.R. Ziemke, L.D. Oman, M. Olsen, L. Coy, and K.E. Knowland, 2018: Recent decline in lower stratospheric ozone attributed to circulation changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, no. 10, 5166-5176, doi:10.1029/2018GL077406.

1998-2016 ozone trends in the lower stratosphere (LS) are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) and related NASA products. After removing biases resulting from step-changes in the MERRA-2 ozone observations, a discernible negative trend of -1.67±0.54 Dobson units per decade (DU/decade) is found in the 10-km layer above the tropopause between 20°N and 60°N. A weaker but statistically significant trend of -1.17±0.33 DU/decade exists between 50°S and 20°S. In the Tropics, a positive trend is seen in a 5-km layer above the tropopause. Analysis of an idealized tracer in a model simulation constrained by MERRA-2 meteorological fields provides strong evidence that these trends are driven by enhanced isentropic transport between the tropical (20°S-20°N) and extratropical LS in the past two decades. This is the first time that a reanalysis dataset has been used to detect and attribute trends in lower stratospheric ozone.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Wargan, K. and Orbe, C. and Pawson, S. and Ziemke, J. R. and Oman, L. D. and Olsen, M. and Coy, L. and Knowland, K. E.},
  title={Recent decline in lower stratospheric ozone attributed to circulation changes},
  journal={Geophysical Research Letters},

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RIS Citation

ID  - wa06700y
AU  - Wargan, K.
AU  - Orbe, C.
AU  - Pawson, S.
AU  - Ziemke, J. R.
AU  - Oman, L. D.
AU  - Olsen, M.
AU  - Coy, L.
AU  - Knowland, K. E.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Recent decline in lower stratospheric ozone attributed to circulation changes
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
JO  - Geophysical Research Letters
VL  - 45
IS  - 10
SP  - 5166
EP  - 5176
DO  - 10.1029/2018GL077406
ER  -

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