Publication Abstracts

Wallach et al. 2015

Wallach, D., L.O. Mearns, M. Rivington, J.M. Antle, and A.C. Ruane, 2015: Uncertainty in agricultural impact assessment. In Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1. C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, Eds., ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3. Imperial College Press, pp. 223-260, doi:10.1142/9781783265640_0009.

This chapter considers issues concerning uncertainty associated with modeling and its use within agricutural impact assessments. Information about uncertainty is important for those who develop assessment methods, since that information indicates the need for, and the possibility of, improvement of the methods and databases. Such information also allows one to compare alternative methods. Information about the sources of uncertainties is an aid in prioritizing further work on the impact assessment method. Uncertainty information is also necessary for those who apply assessment methods, e.g., for projecting climate change impacts on agricultural production and for stakeholders who want to use the results as part of a decision-making process (e.g., for adaptation planning). For them, uncertainty information indicates the degree of confidence they can place in the simulated results. Quantification of uncertainty also provides stakeholders with an important guideline for making decisions that are robust across the known uncertainties. Thus, uncertainty information is important for any decision based on impact assessment. Ultimately, we are interested in knowledge about uncertainty so that information can be used to achieve positive outcomes from agricultural modeling and impact assessment.

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BibTeX Citation

@inbook{wa04500c,
  author={Wallach, D. and Mearns, L. O. and Rivington, M. and Antle, J. M. and Ruane, A. C.},
  editor={Rosenzweig, C. and Hillel, D.},
  title={Uncertainty in agricultural impact assessment},
  booktitle={Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1},
  year={2015},
  pages={223--260},
  publisher={Imperial College Press},
  address={London},
  series={ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3},
  doi={10.1142/9781783265640_0009},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - wa04500c
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Mearns, L. O.
AU  - Rivington, M.
AU  - Antle, J. M.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
ED  - Rosenzweig, C.
ED  - Hillel, D.
PY  - 2015
TI  - Uncertainty in agricultural impact assessment
BT  - Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1
T3  - ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3
SP  - 223
EP  - 260
DO  - 10.1142/9781783265640_0009
PB  - Imperial College Press
CY  - London
ER  -

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