Publication Abstracts

Wang et al. 2017

Wang, E., P. Martre, Z. Zhao, F. Ewert, A. Maiorano, R.P. Rötter, B.A. Kimball, M.J. Ottman, G.W. Wall, J.W. White, M.P. Reynolds, P.D. Alderman, P.K. Aggarwal, J. Anothai, B. Basso, C. Biernath, D. Cammarano, A.J. Challinor, G. De Sanctis, J. Doltra, B. Dumont, E. Fereres, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, R.C. Izaurralde, M. Jabloun, C.D. Jones, K.C. Kersebaum, A.-K. Koehler, L. Liu, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, E. Eyshi Rezaei, D. Ripoche, A.C. Ruane, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, P. Thorburn, K. Waha, D. Wallach, Z. Wang, J. Wolf, Y. Zhu, and S. Asseng, 2017: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions. Nat. Plants, 3, 17102, doi:10.1038/nplants.2017.102.

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Wang, E. and Martre, P. and Zhao, Z. and Ewert, F. and Maiorano, A. and Rötter, R. P. and Kimball, B. A. and Ottman, M. J. and Wall, G. W. and White, J. W. and Reynolds, M. P. and Alderman, P. D. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Cammarano, D. and Challinor, A. J. and De Sanctis, G. and Doltra, J. and Dumont, B. and Fereres, E. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Koehler, A.-K. and Liu, L. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Ripoche, D. and Ruane, A. C. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. and Waha, K. and Wallach, D. and Wang, Z. and Wolf, J. and Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S.},
  title={The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions},
  journal={Nat. Plants},

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RIS Citation

ID  - wa03700v
AU  - Wang, E.
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Zhao, Z.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Maiorano, A.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
AU  - Kimball, B. A.
AU  - Ottman, M. J.
AU  - Wall, G. W.
AU  - White, J. W.
AU  - Reynolds, M. P.
AU  - Alderman, P. D.
AU  - Aggarwal, P. K.
AU  - Anothai, J.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Biernath, C.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Challinor, A. J.
AU  - De Sanctis, G.
AU  - Doltra, J.
AU  - Dumont, B.
AU  - Fereres, E.
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.
AU  - Gayler, S.
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.
AU  - Hunt, L. A.
AU  - Izaurralde, R. C.
AU  - Jabloun, M.
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Kersebaum, K. C.
AU  - Koehler, A.-K.
AU  - Liu, L.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Naresh Kumar, S.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - O'Leary, G.
AU  - Olesen, J. E.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Eyshi Rezaei, E.
AU  - Ripoche, D.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Shcherbak, I.
AU  - Stöckle, C.
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.
AU  - Streck, T.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Thorburn, P.
AU  - Waha, K.
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Wang, Z.
AU  - Wolf, J.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
AU  - Asseng, S.
PY  - 2017
TI  - The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions
JA  - Nat. Plants
VL  - 3
SP  - 17102
DO  - 10.1038/nplants.2017.102
ER  -

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