Publication Abstracts

Valdivia et al. 2015

Valdivia, R.O., J.M. Antle, C. Rosenzweig, A.C. Ruane, J. Vervoot, M. Ashfaq, I. Hathie, S.H.-K. Tui, R. Mulwa, C. Nhemachena, P. Ponnusamy, H. Rasnayaka, and H. Singh, 2015: Representative agricultural pathways and scenarios for regional integrated assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. In Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1. C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, Eds., ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3. Imperial College Press, pp. 101-156, doi:10.1142/9781783265640_0005.

The global change research community has recognized thet new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to omplement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-seres of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developered, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).

This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for acgricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have redued the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agrocultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the "cross-cutting themes" in AgMIP's work plan, and has been the subject of ongoing work by AgMIP since its creation.

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BibTeX Citation

@inbook{va07200b,
  author={Valdivia, R. O. and Antle, J. M. and Rosenzweig, C. and Ruane, A. C. and Vervoot, J. and Ashfaq, M. and Hathie, I. and Tui, S. H.-K. and Mulwa, R. and Nhemachena, C. and Ponnusamy, P. and Rasnayaka, H. and Singh, H.},
  editor={Rosenzweig, C. and Hillel, D.},
  title={Representative agricultural pathways and scenarios for regional integrated assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation},
  booktitle={Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1},
  year={2015},
  pages={101--156},
  publisher={Imperial College Press},
  address={London},
  series={ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3},
  doi={10.1142/9781783265640_0005},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - va07200b
AU  - Valdivia, R. O.
AU  - Antle, J. M.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Vervoot, J.
AU  - Ashfaq, M.
AU  - Hathie, I.
AU  - Tui, S. H.-K.
AU  - Mulwa, R.
AU  - Nhemachena, C.
AU  - Ponnusamy, P.
AU  - Rasnayaka, H.
AU  - Singh, H.
ED  - Rosenzweig, C.
ED  - Hillel, D.
PY  - 2015
TI  - Representative agricultural pathways and scenarios for regional integrated assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation
BT  - Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments, Part 1
T3  - ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation Vol. 3
SP  - 101
EP  - 156
DO  - 10.1142/9781783265640_0005
PB  - Imperial College Press
CY  - London
ER  -

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