Publication Abstracts

Unger et al. 2006

Unger, N.B., D.T. Shindell, D.M. Koch, M. Amann, J. Cofala, and D.G. Streets, 2006: Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12313, doi:10.1029/2005JD006518.

We apply the GISS composition-climate model to an integrated assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4 and sulfate at 2030. We compare 4 different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B, B1 from IPCC SRES and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1 and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 pbbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes dampen future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa due to an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. We present resultant global mean radiative forcings at 2030 relative to the present day for each species. For A1B the forcings are as much as 1/2 of that of the preindustrial to present day forcing for each species. For MFR, the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed. However, for all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3 and sulfate forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario due to the large reduction in sulfate. Global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions at 2030, including CH4 from wetlands, appear to be small (<5%).

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BibTeX Citation

@article{un04000r,
  author={Unger, N. B. and Shindell, D. T. and Koch, D. M. and Amann, M. and Cofala, J. and Streets, D. G.},
  title={Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures},
  year={2006},
  journal={J. Geophys. Res.},
  volume={111},
  pages={D12313},
  doi={10.1029/2005JD006518},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - un04000r
AU  - Unger, N. B.
AU  - Shindell, D. T.
AU  - Koch, D. M.
AU  - Amann, M.
AU  - Cofala, J.
AU  - Streets, D. G.
PY  - 2006
TI  - Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures
JA  - J. Geophys. Res.
VL  - 111
SP  - D12313
DO  - 10.1029/2005JD006518
ER  -

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