Publication Abstracts
Tubiello et al. 2024, submitted
Tubiello, F.N., G. Conchedda, N. Ramadan,
, , N. Lenssen, , and , 2024: Measuring exposure of agriculture to observed temperature change. Environ. Res. Food Syst., submitted.We derive regional indicators that link observed temperature change and agricultural statistics, connecting NASA-GISS and FAOSTAT data for mean annual temperature change on land with statistics of population, agricultural land use, crop and livestock production and gross economic value by country, over the time series 1961-2023. These indicators show that the number of people living in countries experiencing mean annual temperature change greater than 1.5°C increased tenfold over the last three decades, from 0.2 to 2.3 billion people, with the largest increase in Asia. Similarly, world total cropland area exposed to temperature change greater than 1.5°C increased six-fold globally, from 100 to 560 million hectares (Mha), while the harvested area of the world's major crops exposed to above 1.5°C grew even faster: 70 times for soybean (0.4 to 35 Mha), 50 times for rice (0.4 to 29 Mha), 20 times for maize (3 to 63 Mha) and 5 times for wheat (22 to 105 Mha). In the last decade 2014-2023, Europe was the region with the largest relative exposure to the historically observed temperature change, with more than 80% of its rural population, 90% of cropland area, 83% of dairy cattle, 84% of maize and 89% of wheat harvest area experiencing temperature change above 1.5°C. Other regions of significant exposure in the most recent decade included Central and Western Asia — with 60% of cropland and wheat harvest area exposed to above 1.5°C warming — and Northern Africa (40-60%). Exposure to temperature change above 2°C exhibited similar regional patterns, with 270 million hectares (Mha) (93%) of cropland in Europe experiencing extreme temperature change in 2023. These trends are worrisome for the future, considering the near-linear increase that has characterized temperature change over the same period and the concern that the very warm year of 2023 may indicate an accelerated trend of increasing temperature. The climate change agricultural exposure indicators are well-defined statistically, allowing straightforward computations of risk through readily available public data. Their immediate association to the concept of exposure (of people, livestock, agricultural area and crop areas) to given ranges of temperature change provides a powerful tool of analysis to interested researchers as well as global and national policymakers.
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BibTeX Citation
@unpublished{tu07300l, author={Tubiello, F. N. and Conchedda, G. and Ramadan, N. and Ruedy, R. A. and Hendrickson, M. and Lenssen, N. and Rosenzweig, C. and Schmidt, G.}, title={Measuring exposure of agriculture to observed temperature change}, year={2024}, journal={Environmental Research: Food Systems}, note={Manuscript submitted for publication} }
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RIS Citation
TY - UNPB ID - tu07300l AU - Tubiello, F. N. AU - Conchedda, G. AU - Ramadan, N. AU - Ruedy, R. A. AU - Hendrickson, M. AU - Lenssen, N. AU - Rosenzweig, C. AU - Schmidt, G. PY - 2024 TI - Measuring exposure of agriculture to observed temperature change JA - Environ. Res. Food Syst. JO - Environmental Research: Food Systems ER -
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