Publication Abstracts

Tan et al. 2024

Tan, C., D.T. McCoy, and G. Elsaesser, 2024: Constraints on Southern Ocean shortwave cloud feedback from the hydrological cycle. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 129, no. 6, e2023JD040489, doi:10.1029/2023JD040489.

Shifts in Southern Ocean (SO, 40-85°S) shortwave (SW) cloud feedback (SWFB) toward more positive values are the dominant contributor to higher effective climate sensitivity (ECS) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models. To provide an observational constraint on the SO SWFB, we use a simplified physical model to connect SO SWFB with the response of column-integrated liquid water mass (LWP) to warming and the susceptibility of albedo to LWP in 50 CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs. In turn, we predict the responses of SO LWP using a cloud-controlling factor (CCF) model. The combination of the CCF model and radiative susceptibility explains about 50% of the variance in the GCM-simulated SWFB in the SO. Observations of SW radiation fluxes, LWP, and CCFs from reanalysis are used to constrain the SO SWFB. Observations suggest a SO LWP increase in response to warming and albedo susceptibility to LWP that is on the lower end relative to GCMs. The overall constraint on the contribution of SO to global mean SWFB is -0.168 to +0.051 W/m2/K, relative to -0.277 to +0.270 W/m2/K. In summary, observations suggest SO SWFB is less likely to be as extremely positive as predicted by some CMIP6 GCMs, but more likely to range from moderately negative to weakly positive.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Tan, C. and McCoy, D. T. and Elsaesser, G.},
  title={Constraints on Southern Ocean shortwave cloud feedback from the hydrological cycle},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ta02200w
AU  - Tan, C.
AU  - McCoy, D. T.
AU  - Elsaesser, G.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Constraints on Southern Ocean shortwave cloud feedback from the hydrological cycle
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
JO  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
VL  - 129
IS  - 6
SP  - e2023JD040489
DO  - 10.1029/2023JD040489
ER  -

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