Publication Abstracts

Sun and Hansen 2003

Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen, 2003: Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J. Climate, 16, 2807-2826, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2807:CSFWAC>2.0.CO;2.

We simulate climate change for 1951-2050 using the GISS SI2000 model coupled to HYCOM, a quasi-isopycnal ocean model ("ocean E"), and we contrast the results with those obtained using the same atmosphere coupled to a passive Q-flux model ("ocean B") and the same atmosphere driven by observed SST ("model A"). All of the models give reasonable agreement with observed global temperature change during 1951-2000, but the quasi-isopycnal ocean E mixes heat more deeply and hence sequesters heat more effectively on the century time scale. Global surface warming in the next 50 years is only 0.3-0.4°C with this ocean in simulations driven by an "alternative scennario" climate forcing (1.1 W/m2 in the next 50 years), only half as much as with ocean B. From the different models we estimate that the Earth was out of radiation balance by about 0.18 W/m2 in 1951 and is now out of balance by about 0.75 W/m2. This energy imbalance, or residual climate forcing, a consequence of deep ocean mixing of heat anomalies and the history of climate forcings, is a crucial measure of the state of the climate system that should be precisely monitored with full-ocean temperature measurements.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{su04000r,
  author={Sun, S. and Hansen, J. E.},
  title={Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model},
  year={2003},
  journal={J. Climate},
  volume={16},
  pages={2807--2826},
  doi={10.1175%2F1520-0442(2003)016%3C2807%3ACSFWAC%3E2.0.CO;2},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - su04000r
AU  - Sun, S.
AU  - Hansen, J. E.
PY  - 2003
TI  - Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model
JA  - J. Climate
VL  - 16
SP  - 2807
EP  - 2826
DO  - 10.1175%2F1520-0442(2003)016%3C2807%3ACSFWAC%3E2.0.CO;2
ER  -

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