Publication Abstracts

Stjern et al. 2017

Stjern, C.W., B.H. Samset, G. Myhre, P.M. Forster, Ø. Hodnebrog, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, T. Iversen, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Olivié, T. Richardson, D. Shawki, D. Shindell, C.J. Smith, T. Takemura, and A. Voulgarakis, 2017: Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, no. 21, 11462-11481, doi:10.1002/2017JD027326.

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W/m2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W/m2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 W/m2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per W/m2 — about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{st04220q,
  author={Stjern, C. W. and Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog, Ø. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Iversen, T. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkevåg, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Olivié, D. and Richardson, T. and Shawki, D. and Shindell, D. and Smith, C. J. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
  title={Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations},
  year={2017},
  journal={J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  volume={122},
  number={21},
  pages={11462--11481},
  doi={10.1002/2017JD027326},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - st04220q
AU  - Stjern, C. W.
AU  - Samset, B. H.
AU  - Myhre, G.
AU  - Forster, P. M.
AU  - Hodnebrog, Ø.
AU  - Andrews, T.
AU  - Boucher, O.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Iversen, T.
AU  - Kasoar, M.
AU  - Kharin, V.
AU  - Kirkevåg, A.
AU  - Lamarque, J.-F.
AU  - Olivié, D.
AU  - Richardson, T.
AU  - Shawki, D.
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Smith, C. J.
AU  - Takemura, T.
AU  - Voulgarakis, A.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
VL  - 122
IS  - 21
SP  - 11462
EP  - 11481
DO  - 10.1002/2017JD027326
ER  -

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