Publication Abstracts

Spar et al. 1978

Spar, S., J.J. Notario, and W.J. Quirk, 1978: An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model. Mon. Weather Rev., 106, 89-100, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<0089:AISPEW>2.0.CO;2.

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the GISS model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions — a "control" state and three random perturbations thereof — to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The "noise level" of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sp02000x,
  author={Spar, S. and Notario, J. J. and Quirk, W. J.},
  title={An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model},
  year={1978},
  journal={Mon. Weather Rev.},
  volume={106},
  pages={89--100},
  doi={10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106%3C0089%3AAISPEW%3E2.0.CO;2},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sp02000x
AU  - Spar, S.
AU  - Notario, J. J.
AU  - Quirk, W. J.
PY  - 1978
TI  - An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model
JA  - Mon. Weather Rev.
VL  - 106
SP  - 89
EP  - 100
DO  - 10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106%3C0089%3AAISPEW%3E2.0.CO;2
ER  -

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