Publication Abstracts

Sobel et al. 2016

Sobel, A.H., S.J. Camargo, T.M. Hall, C.-Y. Lee, M.K. Tippett, and A.A. Wing, 2016: Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity. Science, 353, no. 6296, 242-246, doi:10.1126/science.aaf6574.

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Sobel, A. H. and Camargo, S. J. and Hall, T. M. and Lee, C.-Y. and Tippett, M. K. and Wing, A. A.},
  title={Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity},

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RIS Citation

ID  - so02200w
AU  - Sobel, A. H.
AU  - Camargo, S. J.
AU  - Hall, T. M.
AU  - Lee, C.-Y.
AU  - Tippett, M. K.
AU  - Wing, A. A.
PY  - 2016
TI  - Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity
JA  - Science
VL  - 353
IS  - 6296
SP  - 242
EP  - 246
DO  - 10.1126/science.aaf6574
ER  -

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