Publication Abstracts

Smith et al. 2022

Smith, D.M., N.P. Gillett, I.R. Simpson, P.J. Athanasiadis, J. Baehr, I. Bethke, T.A. Bilge, R. Bonnet, O. Boucher, K.L. Findell, G. Gastineau, S. Gualdi, L. Hermanson, L.R. Leung, J. Mignot, W.A. Müller, S. Osprey, O.H. Otterå, G.G. Persad, A.A. Scaife, G.A. Schmidt, H. Shiogama, R.T. Sutton, D. Swingedouw, S. Yang, T. Zhou, and T. Ziehn, 2022: Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP). Front. Clim., early on-line, doi:10.3389/fclim.2022.955414.

Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sm05200z,
  author={Smith, D. M. and Gillett, N. P. and Simpson, I. R. and Athanasiadis, P. J. and Baehr, J. and Bethke, I. and Bilge, T. A. and Bonnet, R. and Boucher, O. and Findell, K. L. and Gastineau, G. and Gualdi, S. and Hermanson, L. and Leung, L. R. and Mignot, J. and Müller, W. A. and Osprey, S. and Otterå, O. H. and Persad, G. G. and Scaife, A. A. and Schmidt, G. A. and Shiogama, H. and Sutton, R. T. and Swingedouw, D. and Yang, S. and Zhou, T. and Ziehn, T.},
  title={Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)},
  year={2022},
  journal={Front. Clim.},
  doi={10.3389/fclim.2022.955414},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sm05200z
AU  - Smith, D. M.
AU  - Gillett, N. P.
AU  - Simpson, I. R.
AU  - Athanasiadis, P. J.
AU  - Baehr, J.
AU  - Bethke, I.
AU  - Bilge, T. A.
AU  - Bonnet, R.
AU  - Boucher, O.
AU  - Findell, K. L.
AU  - Gastineau, G.
AU  - Gualdi, S.
AU  - Hermanson, L.
AU  - Leung, L. R.
AU  - Mignot, J.
AU  - Müller, W. A.
AU  - Osprey, S.
AU  - Otterå, O. H.
AU  - Persad, G. G.
AU  - Scaife, A. A.
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Shiogama, H.
AU  - Sutton, R. T.
AU  - Swingedouw, D.
AU  - Yang, S.
AU  - Zhou, T.
AU  - Ziehn, T.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
JA  - Front. Clim.
DO  - 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414
ER  -

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