Publication Abstracts

Silva et al. 2013

Silva, R.A., J.J. West, Y. Zhang, S.C. Anenberg, J.-F. Lamarque, D.T. Shindell, W.J. Collins, S. Dalsoren, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, L.W. Horowitz, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S. Rumbold, R. Skeie, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, R.M. Doherty, V. Eyring, B. Josse, I.A. MacKenzie, D. Plummer, M. Righi, D.S. Stevenson, S. Strode, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng, 2013: Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change. Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005.

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470,000 (95% confidence interval, 140,000 to 900,000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (-20,000 to 27,000) deaths/yr due to ozone and 2200 (-350,000 to 140,000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{si05100w,
  author={Silva, R. A. and West, J. J. and Zhang, Y. and Anenberg, S. C. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Shindell, D. T. and Collins, W. J. and Dalsoren, S. and Faluvegi, G. and Folberth, G. and Horowitz, L. W. and Nagashima, T. and Naik, V. and Rumbold, S. and Skeie, R. and Sudo, K. and Takemura, T. and Bergmann, D. and Cameron-Smith, P. and Cionni, I. and Doherty, R. M. and Eyring, V. and Josse, B. and MacKenzie, I. A. and Plummer, D. and Righi, M. and Stevenson, D. S. and Strode, S. and Szopa, S. and Zeng, G.},
  title={Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change},
  year={2013},
  journal={Environ. Res. Lett.},
  volume={8},
  pages={034005},
  doi={10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - si05100w
AU  - Silva, R. A.
AU  - West, J. J.
AU  - Zhang, Y.
AU  - Anenberg, S. C.
AU  - Lamarque, J.-F.
AU  - Shindell, D. T.
AU  - Collins, W. J.
AU  - Dalsoren, S.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Folberth, G.
AU  - Horowitz, L. W.
AU  - Nagashima, T.
AU  - Naik, V.
AU  - Rumbold, S.
AU  - Skeie, R.
AU  - Sudo, K.
AU  - Takemura, T.
AU  - Bergmann, D.
AU  - Cameron-Smith, P.
AU  - Cionni, I.
AU  - Doherty, R. M.
AU  - Eyring, V.
AU  - Josse, B.
AU  - MacKenzie, I. A.
AU  - Plummer, D.
AU  - Righi, M.
AU  - Stevenson, D. S.
AU  - Strode, S.
AU  - Szopa, S.
AU  - Zeng, G.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
JA  - Environ. Res. Lett.
VL  - 8
SP  - 034005
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005
ER  -

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