Publication Abstracts

Silva et al. 2017

Silva, R.A., J.J. West, J.-F. Lamarque, D.T. Shindell, W.J. Collins, G. Faluvegi, G.A. Folberth, L.W. Horowitz, T. Nagashima, V. Naik, S.T. Rumbold, K. Sudo, T. Takemura, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, R.M. Doherty, B. Josse, I.A. MacKenzie, D.S. Stevenson, and G. Zeng, 2017: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change. Nat. Clim. Change, 7, no. 9, 647-651, doi:10.1038/nclimate3354.

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change, . Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Silva, R. A. and West, J. J. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Shindell, D. T. and Collins, W. J. and Faluvegi, G. and Folberth, G. A. and Horowitz, L. W. and Nagashima, T. and Naik, V. and Rumbold, S. T. and Sudo, K. and Takemura, T. and Bergmann, D. and Cameron-Smith, P. and Doherty, R. M. and Josse, B. and MacKenzie, I. A. and Stevenson, D. S. and Zeng, G.},
  title={Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change},
  journal={Nature Climate Change},

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RIS Citation

ID  - si03200x
AU  - Silva, R. A.
AU  - West, J. J.
AU  - Lamarque, J.-F.
AU  - Shindell, D. T.
AU  - Collins, W. J.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Folberth, G. A.
AU  - Horowitz, L. W.
AU  - Nagashima, T.
AU  - Naik, V.
AU  - Rumbold, S. T.
AU  - Sudo, K.
AU  - Takemura, T.
AU  - Bergmann, D.
AU  - Cameron-Smith, P.
AU  - Doherty, R. M.
AU  - Josse, B.
AU  - MacKenzie, I. A.
AU  - Stevenson, D. S.
AU  - Zeng, G.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
JA  - Nat. Clim. Change
JO  - Nature Climate Change
VL  - 7
IS  - 9
SP  - 647
EP  - 651
DO  - 10.1038/nclimate3354
ER  -

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