Publication Abstracts

Shindell et al. 2018

Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, K. Seltzer, and C. Shindell, 2018: Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions. Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 291-295, doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y.

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2°C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5°C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2°C scenario to 1.5°C or could achieve 2°C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153±43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ∼40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and > 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G. and Seltzer, K. and Shindell, C.},
  title={Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions},
  journal={Nat. Clim. Change},

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RIS Citation

ID  - sh09700b
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Seltzer, K.
AU  - Shindell, C.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions
JA  - Nat. Clim. Change
VL  - 8
SP  - 291
EP  - 295
DO  - 10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y
ER  -

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