Publication Abstracts
Shawki et al. 2017
Shawki, D., , M.K. Tippett, B.H. Saharjo, I. Albar, D. Atmoko, and A. Voulgarakis, 2017: Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, no. 19, 9996-10005, doi:10.1002/2017GL073660.
We conducted a case study of NCEP CFSv2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire Equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180-day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean SSTs. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{sh06700y,
author={Shawki, D. and Field, R. D. and Tippett, M. K. and Saharjo, B. H. and Albar, I. and Atmoko, D. and Voulgarakis, A.},
title={Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia},
year={2017},
journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
volume={44},
number={19},
pages={9996--10005},
doi={10.1002/2017GL073660},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - sh06700y AU - Shawki, D. AU - Field, R. D. AU - Tippett, M. K. AU - Saharjo, B. H. AU - Albar, I. AU - Atmoko, D. AU - Voulgarakis, A. PY - 2017 TI - Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia JA - Geophys. Res. Lett. JO - Geophysical Research Letters VL - 44 IS - 19 SP - 9996 EP - 10005 DO - 10.1002/2017GL073660 ER -
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