Publication Abstracts

Shawki et al. 2017

Shawki, D., R.D. Field, M.K. Tippett, B.H. Saharjo, I. Albar, D. Atmoko, and A. Voulgarakis, 2017: Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, no. 19, 9996-10005, doi:10.1002/2017GL073660.

We conducted a case study of NCEP CFSv2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non-El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire Equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180-day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean SSTs. This case study provides the starting point for longer-term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sh06700y,
  author={Shawki, D. and Field, R. D. and Tippett, M. K. and Saharjo, B. H. and Albar, I. and Atmoko, D. and Voulgarakis, A.},
  title={Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia},
  year={2017},
  journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},
  volume={44},
  number={19},
  pages={9996--10005},
  doi={10.1002%2F2017GL073660},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sh06700y
AU  - Shawki, D.
AU  - Field, R. D.
AU  - Tippett, M. K.
AU  - Saharjo, B. H.
AU  - Albar, I.
AU  - Atmoko, D.
AU  - Voulgarakis, A.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Long-lead prediction of the 2015 fire and haze episode in Indonesia
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
VL  - 44
IS  - 19
SP  - 9996
EP  - 10005
DO  - 10.1002%2F2017GL073660
ER  -

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