Publication Abstracts

Shindell et al. 2024

Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, E. Nagamoto, L. Parsons, and Y. Zhang, 2024: Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the US under decarbonization. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 121, no. 5, e2312832120, doi:10.1073/pnas.2312832120.

Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and the US using projections from multiple climate models under high- and low-emission scenarios. Projected changes in premature deaths are typically dominated by population aging, primarily reflecting increased longevity leading to greater sensitivity to environmental risks. Changes in PM2.5 exposure typically have small impacts on premature deaths under a high-emission scenario but provide substantial benefits under a low-emission scenario. PM2.5-attributable deaths increase in South Asia throughout the century under both scenarios but shift to decreases by late century in China, and US values decrease throughout the century. In contrast, heat exposure increases under both scenarios and combines with population aging to drive projected increases in deaths in all countries. Despite population aging, combined PM2.5- and heat-related deaths decrease under the low-emission scenario by ∼2.4 million per year by mid-century and ∼2.9 million by century's end, with ∼3% and ∼21% of these reductions from heat, respectively. Intermodel variations in exposure projections generally lead to uncertainties of <40% except for US and China heat impacts. Health benefits of low emissions are larger from reduced heat exposure than improved air quality by the late 2090s in the US. In contrast, in South and East Asia the PM2.5-related benefits are largest throughout the century, and their valuation exceeds the cost of decarbonization, especially in China, over the next 30 years.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sh01900n,
  author={Shindell, D. and Faluvegi, G. and Nagamoto, E. and Parsons, L. and Zhang, Y.},
  title={Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the US under decarbonization},
  year={2024},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={121},
  number={5},
  pages={e2312832120},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.2312832120},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sh01900n
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Nagamoto, E.
AU  - Parsons, L.
AU  - Zhang, Y.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the US under decarbonization
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 121
IS  - 5
SP  - e2312832120
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2312832120
ER  -

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