Publication Abstracts

Schmidt et al. 2017

Schmidt, G.A., J. Severinghaus, A. Abe-Ouchi, R.B. Alley, W. Broecker, E. Brook, K. Etheridge, K. Kawamura, R.F. Kelling, M. Leinen, K.D. Marvel, and T.F. Stocker, 2017: Overestimate of committed warming. Nature, 547, E16-E17, doi:10.1038/nature22803.

Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. A recent study used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years to estimate the ESS from present day CO2 is about 9 degrees C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3-7 °C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations. However, we demonstrate that the methodology of ref. 2 does not reliably estimate the ESS in the presence of orbital forcing of ice age cycles and therefore conclude that the inferred present-day committed warming is considerably overestimated.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sc04600m,
  author={Schmidt, G. A. and Severinghaus, J. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Alley, R. B. and Broecker, W. and Brook, E. and Etheridge, K. and Kawamura, K. and Kelling, R. F. and Leinen, M. and Marvel, K. D. and Stocker, T. F.},
  title={Overestimate of committed warming},
  year={2017},
  journal={Nature},
  volume={547},
  pages={E16--E17},
  doi={10.1038/nature22803},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sc04600m
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Severinghaus, J.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Alley, R. B.
AU  - Broecker, W.
AU  - Brook, E.
AU  - Etheridge, K.
AU  - Kawamura, K.
AU  - Kelling, R. F.
AU  - Leinen, M.
AU  - Marvel, K. D.
AU  - Stocker, T. F.
PY  - 2017
TI  - Overestimate of committed warming
JA  - Nature
VL  - 547
SP  - E16
EP  - E17
DO  - 10.1038/nature22803
ER  -

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