Publication Abstracts

Santer et al. 2018

Santer, B.D., P.W. Thorne, L. Haimberger, K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, J.R. Lanzante, S. Solomon, M. Free, P.J. Gleckler, P.D. Jones, T.R. Karl, S.A. Klein, C. Mears, D. Nychka, G.A. Schmidt, S.C. Sherwood, and F.J. Wentz, 2018: Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. In Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues. E.A. Lloyd and E. Winsberg, Eds., Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 85-136, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_5.

Early versions of satellite and radiosonde datasets suggested that the tropical surface had warmed more than the troposphere, while climate models consistently showed tropospheric amplification of surface warming in response to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). We revisit such comparisons here using new observational estimates of surface and tropospheric temperature changes. We find that there is no longer a serious discrepancy between modeled and observed trends in the tropics. Our results contradict a recent claim that all simulated temperature trends in the tropical troposphere are inconsistent with observations. This claim was based on the use of older radiosonde and satellite datasets and on two methodological errors: the neglect of observational trend uncertainties introduced by interannual climate variability and application of an inappropriate statistical "consistency test".

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Santer, B. D. and Thorne, P. W. and Haimberger, L. and Taylor, K. E. and Wigley, T. M. L. and Lanzante, J. R. and Solomon, S. and Free, M. and Gleckler, P. J. and Jones, P. D. and Karl, T. R. and Klein, S. A. and Mears, C. and Nychka, D. and Schmidt, G. A. and Sherwood, S. C. and Wentz, F. J.},
  editor={Lloyd, E. A. and Winsberg, E.},
  title={Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere},
  booktitle={Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues},
  publisher={Palgrave Macmillan},

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RIS Citation

ID  - sa07300l
AU  - Santer, B. D.
AU  - Thorne, P. W.
AU  - Haimberger, L.
AU  - Taylor, K. E.
AU  - Wigley, T. M. L.
AU  - Lanzante, J. R.
AU  - Solomon, S.
AU  - Free, M.
AU  - Gleckler, P. J.
AU  - Jones, P. D.
AU  - Karl, T. R.
AU  - Klein, S. A.
AU  - Mears, C.
AU  - Nychka, D.
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Sherwood, S. C.
AU  - Wentz, F. J.
ED  - Lloyd, E. A.
ED  - Winsberg, E.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere
BT  - Climate Modelling: Philosophical and Conceptual Issues
SP  - 85
EP  - 136
DO  - 10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_5
PB  - Palgrave Macmillan
ER  -

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