Publication Abstracts

Santer et al. 2013

Santer, B.D., J.F. Painter, C. Bonfils, C.A. Mears, S. Solomon, T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, G.A. Schmidt, C. Doutriaux, N.P. Gillett, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, and F.J. Wentz, 2013: Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, 17235-17240, doi:10.1073/pnas.1305332110.

Observational satellite data and the model-predicted response to human influence have a common latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change. The key features of this pattern are global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling over the 34-y satellite temperature record. We show that current climate models are highly unlikely to produce this distinctive signal pattern by internal variability alone, or in response to naturally forced changes in solar output and volcanic aerosol loadings. We detect a "human influence" signal in all cases, even if we test against natural variability estimates with much larger fluctuations in solar and volcanic influences than those observed since 1979. These results highlight the very unusual nature of observed changes in atmospheric temperature.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{sa07200f,
  author={Santer, B. D. and Painter, J. F. and Bonfils, C. and Mears, C. A. and Solomon, S. and Wigley, T. M. L. and Gleckler, P. J. and Schmidt, G. A. and Doutriaux, C. and Gillett, N. P. and Taylor, K. E. and Thorne, P. W. and Wentz, F. J.},
  title={Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere},
  year={2013},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={110},
  pages={17235--17240},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.1305332110},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sa07200f
AU  - Santer, B. D.
AU  - Painter, J. F.
AU  - Bonfils, C.
AU  - Mears, C. A.
AU  - Solomon, S.
AU  - Wigley, T. M. L.
AU  - Gleckler, P. J.
AU  - Schmidt, G. A.
AU  - Doutriaux, C.
AU  - Gillett, N. P.
AU  - Taylor, K. E.
AU  - Thorne, P. W.
AU  - Wentz, F. J.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 110
SP  - 17235
EP  - 17240
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1305332110
ER  -

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