Publication Abstracts

Santer et al. 2006

Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W. Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/pnas.0602861103.

Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32°C to 0.67°C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

BibTeX Citation

@article{sa07100z,
  author={Santer, B. D. and Wigley, T. M. L. and Gleckler, P. J. and Bonfils, C. and Wehner, M. F. and AchutaRao, K. and Barnett, T. P. and Boyle, J. S. and Brüggemann, W. and Fiorino, M. and Gillett, N. and Hansen, J. E. and Jones, P. D. and Klein, S. A. and Meehl, G. A. and Raper, S. C. B. and Reynolds, R. W. and Taylor, K. E. and Washington, W. M.},
  title={Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions},
  year={2006},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={103},
  pages={13905--13910},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.0602861103},
}

[ Close ]

RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - sa07100z
AU  - Santer, B. D.
AU  - Wigley, T. M. L.
AU  - Gleckler, P. J.
AU  - Bonfils, C.
AU  - Wehner, M. F.
AU  - AchutaRao, K.
AU  - Barnett, T. P.
AU  - Boyle, J. S.
AU  - Brüggemann, W.
AU  - Fiorino, M.
AU  - Gillett, N.
AU  - Hansen, J. E.
AU  - Jones, P. D.
AU  - Klein, S. A.
AU  - Meehl, G. A.
AU  - Raper, S. C. B.
AU  - Reynolds, R. W.
AU  - Taylor, K. E.
AU  - Washington, W. M.
PY  - 2006
TI  - Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 103
SP  - 13905
EP  - 13910
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.0602861103
ER  -

[ Close ]

• Return to 2006 Publications

• Return to Publications Homepage