Publication Abstracts

Samset et al. 2018

Samset, B.H., G. Myhre, P.M. Forster, Ø. Hodnebrog, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Olivié, T.B. Richardson, D. Shindell, T. Takemura, and A. Voulgarakis, 2018: Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, no. 1, 3, doi:10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5.

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Samset, B. H. and Myhre, G. and Forster, P. M. and Hodnebrog, Ø. and Andrews, T. and Boucher, O. and Faluvegi, G. and Fläschner, D. and Kasoar, M. and Kharin, V. and Kirkevåg, A. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Olivié, D. and Richardson, T. B. and Shindell, D. and Takemura, T. and Voulgarakis, A.},
  title={Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing},
  journal={NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - sa06300k
AU  - Samset, B. H.
AU  - Myhre, G.
AU  - Forster, P. M.
AU  - Hodnebrog, Ø.
AU  - Andrews, T.
AU  - Boucher, O.
AU  - Faluvegi, G.
AU  - Fläschner, D.
AU  - Kasoar, M.
AU  - Kharin, V.
AU  - Kirkevåg, A.
AU  - Lamarque, J.-F.
AU  - Olivié, D.
AU  - Richardson, T. B.
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Takemura, T.
AU  - Voulgarakis, A.
PY  - 2018
TI  - Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing
JA  - NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci.
VL  - 1
IS  - 1
SP  - 3
DO  - 10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5
ER  -

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