Publication Abstracts

Salzmann et al. 2013

Salzmann, U., A.M. Dolan, A.M. Haywood, W.-L. Chan, J. Voss, D.J. Hill, A. Abe-Ouchi, B. Otto-Bliesner, F. Bragg, M.A. Chandler, C. Contoux, H.J. Dowsett, A. Jost, Y. Kamae, G. Lohmann, D.J. Lunt, S.J. Pickering, M.J. Pound, G. Ramstein, N.A. Rosenbloom, L. Sohl, C. Stepanek, H. Ueda, and Z. Zhang, 2013: Challenges in reconstructing terrestrial warming of the Pliocene revealed by data-model discord. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 969-974, doi:10.1038/nclimate2008.

Comparing simulations of key warm periods in Earth history with contemporaneous geological proxy data is a useful approach for evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate warm, high-CO2 climates that are unprecedented in the more recent past. Here we use a global data set of confidence-assessed, proxy-based temperature estimates and biome reconstructions to assess the ability of eight models to simulate warm terrestrial climates of the Pliocene epoch. The Late Pliocene, 3.6-2.6 million years ago, is an accessible geological interval to understand climate processes of a warmer world. We show that model-predicted surface air temperatures reveal a substantial cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Particularly strong data-model mismatches in mean annual temperatures (up to 18°C) exist in northern Russia. Our model sensitivity tests identify insufficient temporal constraints hampering the accurate configuration of model boundary conditions as an important factor impacting on data-model discrepancies. We conclude that to allow a more robust evaluation of the ability of present climate models to predict warm climates, future Pliocene data-model comparison studies should focus on orbitally defined time slices.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Salzmann, U. and Dolan, A. M. and Haywood, A. M. and Chan, W.-L. and Voss, J. and Hill, D. J. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Bragg, F. and Chandler, M. A. and Contoux, C. and Dowsett, H. J. and Jost, A. and Kamae, Y. and Lohmann, G. and Lunt, D. J. and Pickering, S. J. and Pound, M. J. and Ramstein, G. and Rosenbloom, N. A. and Sohl, L. and Stepanek, C. and Ueda, H. and Zhang, Z.},
  title={Challenges in reconstructing terrestrial warming of the Pliocene revealed by data-model discord},
  journal={Nature Clim. Change},

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RIS Citation

ID  - sa06200s
AU  - Salzmann, U.
AU  - Dolan, A. M.
AU  - Haywood, A. M.
AU  - Chan, W.-L.
AU  - Voss, J.
AU  - Hill, D. J.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B.
AU  - Bragg, F.
AU  - Chandler, M. A.
AU  - Contoux, C.
AU  - Dowsett, H. J.
AU  - Jost, A.
AU  - Kamae, Y.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Lunt, D. J.
AU  - Pickering, S. J.
AU  - Pound, M. J.
AU  - Ramstein, G.
AU  - Rosenbloom, N. A.
AU  - Sohl, L.
AU  - Stepanek, C.
AU  - Ueda, H.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Challenges in reconstructing terrestrial warming of the Pliocene revealed by data-model discord
JA  - Nature Clim. Change
VL  - 3
SP  - 969
EP  - 974
DO  - 10.1038/nclimate2008
ER  -

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