Publication Abstracts

Rohling et al. 2012

Rohling, E.J., A. Sluijs, H.A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.S. von der Heydt, D.J. Beerling, A. Berger, P.K. Bijl, M. Crucifix, R. DeConto, S.S. Drijfhout, A. Fedorov, G.L. Foster, A. Ganopolski, J. Hansen, B. Hönisch, H. Hooghiemstra, M. Huber, P. Huybers, R. Knutti, D.W. Lea, L.J. Lourens, D. Lunt, V. Masson-Demotte, M. Medina-Elizalde, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Pagani, H. Pälike, H. Renssen, D.L. Royer, M. Siddall, P. Valdes, J.C. Zachos, and R.E. Zeebe, 2012: Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, 491, 683-691, doi:10.1038/nature11574.

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K/Wm2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Rohling, E. J. and Sluijs, A. and Dijkstra, H. A. and Köhler, P. and van de Wal, R. S. W. and von der Heydt, A. S. and Beerling, D. J. and Berger, A. and Bijl, P. K. and Crucifix, M. and DeConto, R. and Drijfhout, S. S. and Fedorov, A. and Foster, G. L. and Ganopolski, A. and Hansen, J. and Hönisch, B. and Hooghiemstra, H. and Huber, M. and Huybers, P. and Knutti, R. and Lea, D. W. and Lourens, L. J. and Lunt, D. and Masson-Demotte, V. and Medina-Elizalde, M. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Pagani, M. and Pälike, H. and Renssen, H. and Royer, D. L. and Siddall, M. and Valdes, P. and Zachos, J. C. and Zeebe, R. E.},
  title={Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ro09210n
AU  - Rohling, E. J.
AU  - Sluijs, A.
AU  - Dijkstra, H. A.
AU  - Köhler, P.
AU  - van de Wal, R. S. W.
AU  - von der Heydt, A. S.
AU  - Beerling, D. J.
AU  - Berger, A.
AU  - Bijl, P. K.
AU  - Crucifix, M.
AU  - DeConto, R.
AU  - Drijfhout, S. S.
AU  - Fedorov, A.
AU  - Foster, G. L.
AU  - Ganopolski, A.
AU  - Hansen, J.
AU  - Hönisch, B.
AU  - Hooghiemstra, H.
AU  - Huber, M.
AU  - Huybers, P.
AU  - Knutti, R.
AU  - Lea, D. W.
AU  - Lourens, L. J.
AU  - Lunt, D.
AU  - Masson-Demotte, V.
AU  - Medina-Elizalde, M.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B.
AU  - Pagani, M.
AU  - Pälike, H.
AU  - Renssen, H.
AU  - Royer, D. L.
AU  - Siddall, M.
AU  - Valdes, P.
AU  - Zachos, J. C.
AU  - Zeebe, R. E.
PY  - 2012
TI  - Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
JA  - Nature
VL  - 491
SP  - 683
EP  - 691
DO  - 10.1038/nature11574
ER  -

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