Publication Abstracts

Rosenzweig et al. 2014

Rosenzweig, C., J. Elliott, D. Deryng, A.C. Ruane, C. Müller, A. Arneth, K.J. Boote, C. Folberth, M. Glotter, N. Khabarov, K. Neumann, F. Piontek, T.A.M. Pugh, E. Schmid, E. Stehfest, H. Yang, and J.W. Jones, 2014: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, no. 9, 3268-3273, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222463110.

Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ro06310j,
  author={Rosenzweig, C. and Elliott, J. and Deryng, D. and Ruane, A. C. and Müller, C. and Arneth, A. and Boote, K. J. and Folberth, C. and Glotter, M. and Khabarov, N. and Neumann, K. and Piontek, F. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Schmid, E. and Stehfest, E. and Yang, H. and Jones, J. W.},
  title={Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison},
  year={2014},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={111},
  number={9},
  pages={3268--3273},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.1222463110},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ro06310j
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Arneth, A.
AU  - Boote, K. J.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Glotter, M.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Neumann, K.
AU  - Piontek, F.
AU  - Pugh, T. A. M.
AU  - Schmid, E.
AU  - Stehfest, E.
AU  - Yang, H.
AU  - Jones, J. W.
PY  - 2014
TI  - Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 111
IS  - 9
SP  - 3268
EP  - 3273
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1222463110
ER  -

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