Publication Abstracts

Rind and Overpeck 1993

Rind, D., and J. Overpeck, 1993: Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: Climate model results. Quat. Sci. Rev., 12, 357-374, doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(05)80002-2.

There are at least five hypothesized causes of decadal to century-scale climate variability, both 'natural' and anthropogenically-induced: (1) inherent ('random') variability in the atmosphere (i.e. no external forcing); (2) inherent or forced variability in the ocean dynamical system (e.g. North Atlantic Deep Water fluctuations); (3) solar variability (e.g. the Maunder Minimum); (4) variability in volcanic aerosol loading of the atmosphere (e.g. Tambora); and (5) atmospheric trace gase variability (e.g. CO2, methane). Modeling experiments conducted for each of these potential mechanisms show that they have different signatures in time and space which may allow for discrimination in the climate record. The effects of variations in ocean thermohaline circulation are likely to be largest in those regions adjacent to and downwind of areas of deepwater formation. Decreased insolation and large low latitude volcanic eruptions affect all latitudes, including changes in Hadley cell-dominated low-latitude systems. In contrast, trace-gas induced warming is likely to be amplified at high latitudes, although still contatining a significant low latitude effect. Each of the hypothesized causes may have been important, and it is likely that several may have acted in concert to produce the observed climate record. During the Holocene, natural global mean decade-to-century-scale variavbility is likely to have been limited to 0.5 to 1.0°C, and to have been non-uniformly distributed over the globe. These natural sources of climate variability are thus unlikely to counter future greenhouse warming in any long-term way.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Rind, D. and Overpeck, J.},
  title={Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: Climate model results},
  journal={Quat. Sci. Rev.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ri00600k
AU  - Rind, D.
AU  - Overpeck, J.
PY  - 1993
TI  - Hypothesized causes of decade-to-century-scale climate variability: Climate model results
JA  - Quat. Sci. Rev.
VL  - 12
SP  - 357
EP  - 374
DO  - 10.1016/S0277-3791(05)80002-2
ER  -

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