Publication Abstracts

Ren et al. 2023, accepted

Ren, X., D.J. Lunt, E. Hendy, A. von der Heydt, A. Abe-Ouchi, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, C.J.R. Williams, C. Stepanek, C. Guo, D. Chandan, G. Lohmann, J.C. Tindall, L.E. Sohl, M.A. Chandler, M. Kageyama, M.L.J. Baatsen, N. Tan, Q. Zhang, R. Feng, W.-L. Chan, W.R. Peltier, X. Li, Y. Kamae, Z. Zhang, and A.M. Haywood, 2023: The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: Results from PlioMIP2. Clim. Past, accepted.

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Pliocene (from 3.264 to 3.025 million years before present), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land-sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mid-Pliocene and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mid-Pliocene climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with preindustrial.

In order to avoid undue influence from closely-related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric — the multi-cluster mean (MCM), based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and reconstructed proxy data. The clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensemble that include similar models.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Ren, X. and Lunt, D. J. and Hendy, E. and von der Heydt, A. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Williams, C. J. R. and Stepanek, C. and Guo, C. and Chandan, D. and Lohmann, G. and Tindall, J. C. and Sohl, L. E. and Chandler, M. A. and Kageyama, M. and Baatsen, M. L. J. and Tan, N. and Zhang, Q. and Feng, R. and Chan, W.-L. and Peltier, W. R. and Li, X. and Kamae, Y. and Zhang, Z. and Haywood, A. M.},
  title={The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: Results from PlioMIP2},
  journal={Clim. Past},

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RIS Citation

ID  - re05100p
AU  - Ren, X.
AU  - Lunt, D. J.
AU  - Hendy, E.
AU  - von der Heydt, A.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
AU  - Williams, C. J. R.
AU  - Stepanek, C.
AU  - Guo, C.
AU  - Chandan, D.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Tindall, J. C.
AU  - Sohl, L. E.
AU  - Chandler, M. A.
AU  - Kageyama, M.
AU  - Baatsen, M. L. J.
AU  - Tan, N.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Feng, R.
AU  - Chan, W.-L.
AU  - Peltier, W. R.
AU  - Li, X.
AU  - Kamae, Y.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Haywood, A. M.
PY  - 2023
TI  - The hydrological cycle and ocean circulation of the Maritime Continent in the mid-Pliocene: Results from PlioMIP2
JA  - Clim. Past
ER  -

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