Publication Abstracts

Pontes et al. 2022, accepted

Pontes, G., A. Taschetto, A. Sen Gupta, A. Santoso, I. Wainer, A. Haywood, W.-L. Chan, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, S. Hunter, J. Tindall, M. Chandler, L. Sohl, D. Peltier, D. Chandan, Y. Kamae, K. Nisancioglu, Z. Zhang, C. Contoux, N. Tan, Q. Zhang, B. Otto-Bliesner, E. Brady, R. Feng, A. von der Heydt, M. Baatsen, and A. Oldemann, 2022: Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shift. Nat. Geosci., accepted.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest pattern of year-to-year climate variability found in the equatorial Pacific Ocean with global impacts. However, it is not fully understood how ENSO responds to different warming scenarios. In the warmer climate (∼2-3K) of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (∼3 Ma BP), models consistently suggest a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We show that a near unanimous weakening of ENSO across models cannot be fully explained simply by mean state changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Instead, robust off-equatorial mean state changes in the mid-Pliocene are not favourable for ENSO activity. A northward displacement of the Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is found to be significantly linked to the ENSO weakening across models. This is accompanied by increased south-easterly trade winds in the western Pacific and an intensified South Pacific Subtropical High, which are consistent with suppressed activity of processes that initiate ENSO. Our results provide a constraint to past and future changes to ENSO associated with the climatological ITCZ position.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Pontes, G. and Taschetto, A. and Sen Gupta, A. and Santoso, A. and Wainer, I. and Haywood, A. and Chan, W.-L. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Stepanek, C. and Lohmann, G. and Hunter, S. and Tindall, J. and Chandler, M. and Sohl, L. and Peltier, D. and Chandan, D. and Kamae, Y. and Nisancioglu, K. and Zhang, Z. and Contoux, C. and Tan, N. and Zhang, Q. and Otto-Bliesner, B. and Brady, E. and Feng, R. and von der Heydt, A. and Baatsen, M. and Oldemann, A.},
  title={Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shift},
  journal={Nat. Geosci.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - po06200a
AU  - Pontes, G.
AU  - Taschetto, A.
AU  - Sen Gupta, A.
AU  - Santoso, A.
AU  - Wainer, I.
AU  - Haywood, A.
AU  - Chan, W.-L.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Stepanek, C.
AU  - Lohmann, G.
AU  - Hunter, S.
AU  - Tindall, J.
AU  - Chandler, M.
AU  - Sohl, L.
AU  - Peltier, D.
AU  - Chandan, D.
AU  - Kamae, Y.
AU  - Nisancioglu, K.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Contoux, C.
AU  - Tan, N.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Otto-Bliesner, B.
AU  - Brady, E.
AU  - Feng, R.
AU  - von der Heydt, A.
AU  - Baatsen, M.
AU  - Oldemann, A.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shift
JA  - Nat. Geosci.
ER  -

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