Publication Abstracts

Piontek et al. 2014

Piontek, F., C. Müller, T.A.M. Pugh, D.B. Clark, D. Deryng, J. Elliott, F.de J. Colón González, M. Flörke, C. Folberth, W. Franssen, K. Frieler, A.D. Friend, S.N. Gosling, D. Hemming, N. Khabarov, H. Kim, M.R. Lomas, Y. Masaki, M. Mengel, A. Morse, K. Neumann, N. Nishin, S. Ostberg, R. Pavlick, A.C. Ruane, J. Schewe, E. Schmid, T. Stack, Q. Tang, Z.D. Tessler, A.M. Tompkins, L. Warszawski, D. Wisser, and H.J. Schellnhuber, 2014: Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 111, no. 9, 3233-3238, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222471110.

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{pi06000d,
  author={Piontek, F. and Müller, C. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Elliott, J. and Colón González, F. de J. and Flörke, M. and Folberth, C. and Franssen, W. and Frieler, K. and Friend, A. D. and Gosling, S. N. and Hemming, D. and Khabarov, N. and Kim, H. and Lomas, M. R. and Masaki, Y. and Mengel, M. and Morse, A. and Neumann, K. and Nishin, N. and Ostberg, S. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schewe, J. and Schmid, E. and Stack, T. and Tang, Q. and Tessler, Z. D. and Tompkins, A. M. and Warszawski, L. and Wisser, D. and Schellnhuber, H. J.},
  title={Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world},
  year={2014},
  journal={Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
  volume={111},
  number={9},
  pages={3233--3238},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.1222471110},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - pi06000d
AU  - Piontek, F.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Pugh, T. A. M.
AU  - Clark, D. B.
AU  - Deryng, D.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Colón González, F. de J.
AU  - Flörke, M.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Franssen, W.
AU  - Frieler, K.
AU  - Friend, A. D.
AU  - Gosling, S. N.
AU  - Hemming, D.
AU  - Khabarov, N.
AU  - Kim, H.
AU  - Lomas, M. R.
AU  - Masaki, Y.
AU  - Mengel, M.
AU  - Morse, A.
AU  - Neumann, K.
AU  - Nishin, N.
AU  - Ostberg, S.
AU  - Pavlick, R.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Schewe, J.
AU  - Schmid, E.
AU  - Stack, T.
AU  - Tang, Q.
AU  - Tessler, Z. D.
AU  - Tompkins, A. M.
AU  - Warszawski, L.
AU  - Wisser, D.
AU  - Schellnhuber, H. J.
PY  - 2014
TI  - Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
VL  - 111
IS  - 9
SP  - 3233
EP  - 3238
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.1222471110
ER  -

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