Publication Abstracts

Patz et al. 2002

Patz, J.A., M. Hulme, C. Rosenzweig, T.D. Mitchell, R.A. Goldberg, A.K. Githeko, S. Lele, A.J. McMichael, and D. Le Sueur, 2002: Regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature, 420, 627-628, doi:10.1038/420627a.

Disease outbreaks are known to be often influenced by local weather, but how changes in disease trends might be affected by long-term global warming is more difficult to establish. In a study of malaria in the African highlands, Hay et al. found no significant change in long-term climate at four locations where malaria incidence has been increasing since 1976. We contend, however, that their conclusions are likely to be flawed by their inappropriate use of a global climate data set. Moreover, the absence of a historical climate signal allows no inference to be drawn about the impact of future climate change on malaria in the region. the existence of critical climate thresholds, the association between change in malaria incidence and change in climate can be biologically meaningful, even without "significant" climate change.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Patz, J. A. and Hulme, M. and Rosenzweig, C. and Mitchell, T. D. and Goldberg, R. A. and Githeko, A. K. and Lele, S. and McMichael, A. J. and Le Sueur, D.},
  title={Regional warming and malaria resurgence},

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RIS Citation

ID  - pa09000a
AU  - Patz, J. A.
AU  - Hulme, M.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Mitchell, T. D.
AU  - Goldberg, R. A.
AU  - Githeko, A. K.
AU  - Lele, S.
AU  - McMichael, A. J.
AU  - Le Sueur, D.
PY  - 2002
TI  - Regional warming and malaria resurgence
JA  - Nature
VL  - 420
SP  - 627
EP  - 628
DO  - 10.1038/420627a
ER  -

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