Publication Abstracts

Payne et al. 2021

Payne, A.J., S. Nowicki, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Agosta, P.M. Alexander, T. Albrecht, X.S. Asay-Davis, A. Aschwanden, A. Barthel, T.J. Bracegirdle, R. Calov, C. Chambers, Y. Choi, R.I. Cullather, J.K. Cuzzone, C. Dumas, T. Edwards, D. Felikson, X. Fettweis, B.K. Galton-Fenzi, H. Goelzer, R. Gladstone, N.R. Golledge, J.M. Gregory, R. Greve, T. Hattermann, M.J. Hoffman, A. Humbert, P. Huybrechts, N.C. Jourdain, T. Kleiner, P.K. Munneke, E.Y. Larour, S. Le Clec'h, V. Lee, G. Leguy, W.H. Lipscomb, C.M. Little, D.P. Lowry, M. Morlighem, I. Nias, F. Pattyn, T. Pelle, S. Price, A. Quiquet, R. Reese, M. Rückamp, N.J. Schlegel, H. Seroussi, A. Shepherd, E. Simon, D.A. Slater, R. Smith, F. Straneo, S. Sun, L. Tarasov, L. Trusel, J. Van Breedam, R.S.W. van de Wal, M.R. van den Broeke, R. Winkelmann, C. Zhao, and T. Zhang, 2021: Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, no. 16, e2020GL091741, doi:10.1029/2020GL091741.

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous CMIP5 effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{pa07600p,
  author={Payne, A. J. and Nowicki, S. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Agosta, C. and Alexander, P. M. and Albrecht, T. and Asay-Davis, X. S. and Aschwanden, A. and Barthel, A. and Bracegirdle, T. J. and Calov, R. and Chambers, C. and Choi, Y. and Cullather, R. I. and Cuzzone, J. K. and Dumas, C. and Edwards, T. and Felikson, D. and Fettweis, X. and Galton-Fenzi, B. K. and Goelzer, H. and Gladstone, R. and Golledge, N. R. and Gregory, J. M. and Greve, R. and Hattermann, T. and Hoffman, M. J. and Humbert, A. and Huybrechts, P. and Jourdain, N. C. and Kleiner, T. and Munneke, P. K. and Larour, E. Y. and Le Clec'h, S. and Lee, V. and Leguy, G. and Lipscomb, W. H. and Little, C. M. and Lowry, D. P. and Morlighem, M. and Nias, I. and Pattyn, F. and Pelle, T. and Price, S. and Quiquet, A. and Reese, R. and Rückamp, M. and Schlegel, N. J. and Seroussi, H. and Shepherd, A. and Simon, E. and Slater, D. A. and Smith, R. and Straneo, F. and Sun, S. and Tarasov, L. and Trusel, L. and Van Breedam, J. and van de Wal, R. S. W. and van den Broeke, M. R. and Winkelmann, R. and Zhao, C. and Zhang, T.},
  title={Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets},
  year={2021},
  journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},
  volume={48},
  number={16},
  pages={e2020GL091741},
  doi={10.1029/2020GL091741},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - pa07600p
AU  - Payne, A. J.
AU  - Nowicki, S.
AU  - Abe-Ouchi, A.
AU  - Agosta, C.
AU  - Alexander, P. M.
AU  - Albrecht, T.
AU  - Asay-Davis, X. S.
AU  - Aschwanden, A.
AU  - Barthel, A.
AU  - Bracegirdle, T. J.
AU  - Calov, R.
AU  - Chambers, C.
AU  - Choi, Y.
AU  - Cullather, R. I.
AU  - Cuzzone, J. K.
AU  - Dumas, C.
AU  - Edwards, T.
AU  - Felikson, D.
AU  - Fettweis, X.
AU  - Galton-Fenzi, B. K.
AU  - Goelzer, H.
AU  - Gladstone, R.
AU  - Golledge, N. R.
AU  - Gregory, J. M.
AU  - Greve, R.
AU  - Hattermann, T.
AU  - Hoffman, M. J.
AU  - Humbert, A.
AU  - Huybrechts, P.
AU  - Jourdain, N. C.
AU  - Kleiner, T.
AU  - Munneke, P. K.
AU  - Larour, E. Y.
AU  - Le Clec'h, S.
AU  - Lee, V.
AU  - Leguy, G.
AU  - Lipscomb, W. H.
AU  - Little, C. M.
AU  - Lowry, D. P.
AU  - Morlighem, M.
AU  - Nias, I.
AU  - Pattyn, F.
AU  - Pelle, T.
AU  - Price, S.
AU  - Quiquet, A.
AU  - Reese, R.
AU  - Rückamp, M.
AU  - Schlegel, N. J.
AU  - Seroussi, H.
AU  - Shepherd, A.
AU  - Simon, E.
AU  - Slater, D. A.
AU  - Smith, R.
AU  - Straneo, F.
AU  - Sun, S.
AU  - Tarasov, L.
AU  - Trusel, L.
AU  - Van Breedam, J.
AU  - van de Wal, R. S. W.
AU  - van den Broeke, M. R.
AU  - Winkelmann, R.
AU  - Zhao, C.
AU  - Zhang, T.
PY  - 2021
TI  - Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
VL  - 48
IS  - 16
SP  - e2020GL091741
DO  - 10.1029/2020GL091741
ER  -

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