Publication Abstracts

Parry et al. 1999

Parry, M., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, G. Fischer, and M. Livermore, 1999: Climate change and world food security: A new assessment. Glob. Environ. Change, 9, S51-S67.

Building on previous work, quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre for Environmental Change's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hulme et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 1988) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accomodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffcted by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million people (±10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble mebers is selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked redutions in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadGCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario the effect is even more severe, producting an estimated additional 70+ million people at risk of hunger in Africa.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{pa06000k,
  author={Parry, M. and Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A. and Fischer, G. and Livermore, M.},
  title={Climate change and world food security: A new assessment},
  year={1999},
  journal={Glob. Environ. Change},
  volume={9},
  pages={S51--S67},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - pa06000k
AU  - Parry, M.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Iglesias, A.
AU  - Fischer, G.
AU  - Livermore, M.
PY  - 1999
TI  - Climate change and world food security: A new assessment
JA  - Glob. Environ. Change
VL  - 9
SP  - S51
EP  - S67
ER  -

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