Publication Abstracts

Otto et al. 2013

Otto, A., F.E.L. Otto, O. Boucher, J. Church, G. Hegerl, P.M. Forster, N.P. Gillett, J. Gregory, G.C. Johnson, R. Knutti, N. Lewis, U. Lohmann, J. Marotzke, G. Myhre, D. Shindell, B. Stevens, and M.R. Allen, 2013: Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nat. Geosci., 6, 415-416, doi:10.1038/ngeo1836.

The rate of global mean warming has been lower over the past decade than previously. It has been argued that this observation might require a downwards revision of estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity, that is, the long-term (equilibrium) temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using up-to-date data on radiative forcing, global mean surface temperature and total heat uptake in the Earth system, we find that the global energy budget implies a range of values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity that is in agreement with earlier estimates, within the limits of uncertainty. The energy budget of the most recent decade does, however, indicate a lower range of values for the more policy-relevant transient climate response (the temperature increase at the point of doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration following a linear ramp of increasing greenhouse gas forcing) than the range obtained by either analysing the energy budget of earlier decades or current climate model simulations.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Otto, A. and Otto, F. E. L. and Boucher, O. and Church, J. and Hegerl, G. and Forster, P. M. and Gillett, N. P. and Gregory, J. and Johnson, G. C. and Knutti, R. and Lewis, N. and Lohmann, U. and Marotzke, J. and Myhre, G. and Shindell, D. and Stevens, B. and Allen, M. R.},
  title={Energy budget constraints on climate response},
  journal={Nat. Geosci.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - ot03100r
AU  - Otto, A.
AU  - Otto, F. E. L.
AU  - Boucher, O.
AU  - Church, J.
AU  - Hegerl, G.
AU  - Forster, P. M.
AU  - Gillett, N. P.
AU  - Gregory, J.
AU  - Johnson, G. C.
AU  - Knutti, R.
AU  - Lewis, N.
AU  - Lohmann, U.
AU  - Marotzke, J.
AU  - Myhre, G.
AU  - Shindell, D.
AU  - Stevens, B.
AU  - Allen, M. R.
PY  - 2013
TI  - Energy budget constraints on climate response
JA  - Nat. Geosci.
VL  - 6
SP  - 415
EP  - 416
DO  - 10.1038/ngeo1836
ER  -

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