Publication Abstracts

Ortiz et al. 2024, accepted

Ortiz, L., C. Braneon, R. Horton, D. Bader, P. Orton, V. Gornitz, B. Rosenzweig, T. McPhearson, L. Smalls-Mantey, H. Sheerazi, F. Montalto, M.R. Golkhandan, C. Evans, A. Degaetano, E. Mallen, L. Carter, K. McConnell, T. Mayo, and M. Buchanan, 2024: NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., accepted.

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for the City, including using projections across multiple emissions pathways and the issue of the "hot models" associated with CMIP6 and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intra-urban heat and heat exposure.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Ortiz, L. and Braneon, C. and Horton, R. and Bader, D. and Orton, P. and Gornitz, V. and Rosenzweig, B. and McPhearson, T. and Smalls-Mantey, L. and Sheerazi, H. and Montalto, F. and Golkhandan, M. R. and Evans, C. and Degaetano, A. and Mallen, E. and Carter, L. and McConnell, K. and Mayo, T. and Buchanan, M.},
  title={NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections},
  journal={Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences},

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RIS Citation

ID  - or08200c
AU  - Ortiz, L.
AU  - Braneon, C.
AU  - Horton, R.
AU  - Bader, D.
AU  - Orton, P.
AU  - Gornitz, V.
AU  - Rosenzweig, B.
AU  - McPhearson, T.
AU  - Smalls-Mantey, L.
AU  - Sheerazi, H.
AU  - Montalto, F.
AU  - Golkhandan, M. R.
AU  - Evans, C.
AU  - Degaetano, A.
AU  - Mallen, E.
AU  - Carter, L.
AU  - McConnell, K.
AU  - Mayo, T.
AU  - Buchanan, M.
PY  - 2024
TI  - NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections
JA  - Ann. New York Acad. Sci.
JO  - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
ER  -

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