Publication Abstracts

Orton et al. 2019

Orton, P., N. Lin, V. Gornitz, B. Colle, J. Booth, K. Feng, M. Buchanan, M. Oppenheimer, and L. Patrick, 2019: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 1439, 95-114, doi:10.1111/nyas.14011.

Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face. It was responsible for half of all hurricane-related mortalities in the United States from 1963 to 2012, far more than any other factor (Rappaport, 2014). Coastal extreme water levels are increasing globally, mainly driven by rises in mean sea level (MSL; e.g., Marcos et al., 2015; Marcos and Woodworth, 2017; Menéndez and Woodworth, 2010). Sea level rise is also causing rapid increases in the annual number of shallow "nuisance floods" for low-lying neighborhoods (e.g., Strauss et al., 2016; Sweet and Marra, 2014).

The objectives of this chapter are to review the latest knowledge on New York City flood risk from storms and tides, and to evaluate how climate change will affect this risk between now and the end of the century. Methods used by NPCC (2015) for assessing storm-driven extreme floods are generally repeated here, including the use of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2013) baseline flood hazards (e.g., the 100-year flood) and the methods for adding sea level rise and mapping the resulting hazard (Horton et al., 2015b; Patrick et al., 2015). New advancements include an innovative analysis of monthly tidal flooding based on a dynamic model, a broadened set of sea level rise scenarios supplemented with the Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) scenario (see Chapter 3), and sensitivity analyses that show how differing methods would affect our results. Wind is a primary factor for coastal storm surge, and a brief review is given in Appendix 4.A, with the latest scientific knowledge on what drives extreme wind events in the New York City area and how they may change in the future.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{or08100s,
  author={Orton, P. and Lin, N. and Gornitz, V. and Colle, B. and Booth, J. and Feng, K. and Buchanan, M. and Oppenheimer, M. and Patrick, L.},
  editor={Rosenzweig, C. and Solecki, W.},
  title={New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding},
  year={2019},
  journal={Ann. New York Acad. Sci.},
  volume={1439},
  pages={95--114},
  doi={10.1111/nyas.14011},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - CHAP
ID  - or08100s
AU  - Orton, P.
AU  - Lin, N.
AU  - Gornitz, V.
AU  - Colle, B.
AU  - Booth, J.
AU  - Feng, K.
AU  - Buchanan, M.
AU  - Oppenheimer, M.
AU  - Patrick, L.
ED  - Rosenzweig, C.
ED  - Solecki, W.
PY  - 2019
TI  - New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding
JA  - Ann. New York Acad. Sci.
VL  - 1439
SP  - 95
EP  - 114
DO  - 10.1111/nyas.14011
ER  -

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