Publication Abstracts

Notz et al. 2020

Notz, D., J. Dörr, D.A. Bailey, E. Blockley, M. Bushuk, J.B. Debernard, E. Dekker, P. DeRepentigny, D. Docquier, N.S. Fučkar, J.C. Fyfe, A. Jahn, M. Holland, E. Hunke, D. Iovino, N. Khosravi, G. Madec, F. Massonnet, S. O'Farrell, A. Petty, A. Rana, L. Roach, E. Rosenblum, C. Rousset, T. Semmler, J. Stroeve, T. Toyoda, B. Tremblay, H. Tsujino, and M. Vancoppenolle, 2020: Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, no. 10, e2019GL086749, doi:10.1029/2019GL086749.

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea-ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea-ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea-ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea-ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free (sea-ice area <1×106 km2) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 examined here.

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BibTeX Citation

  author={Notz, D. and Dörr, J. and Bailey, D. A. and Blockley, E. and Bushuk, M. and Debernard, J. B. and Dekker, E. and DeRepentigny, P. and Docquier, D. and Fučkar, N. S. and Fyfe, J. C. and Jahn, A. and Holland, M. and Hunke, E. and Iovino, D. and Khosravi, N. and Madec, G. and Massonnet, F. and O'Farrell, S. and Petty, A. and Rana, A. and Roach, L. and Rosenblum, E. and Rousset, C. and Semmler, T. and Stroeve, J. and Toyoda, T. and Tremblay, B. and Tsujino, H. and Vancoppenolle, M.},
  title={Arctic sea ice in CMIP6},
  journal={Geophys. Res. Lett.},

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RIS Citation

ID  - no00200u
AU  - Notz, D.
AU  - Dörr, J.
AU  - Bailey, D. A.
AU  - Blockley, E.
AU  - Bushuk, M.
AU  - Debernard, J. B.
AU  - Dekker, E.
AU  - DeRepentigny, P.
AU  - Docquier, D.
AU  - Fučkar, N. S.
AU  - Fyfe, J. C.
AU  - Jahn, A.
AU  - Holland, M.
AU  - Hunke, E.
AU  - Iovino, D.
AU  - Khosravi, N.
AU  - Madec, G.
AU  - Massonnet, F.
AU  - O'Farrell, S.
AU  - Petty, A.
AU  - Rana, A.
AU  - Roach, L.
AU  - Rosenblum, E.
AU  - Rousset, C.
AU  - Semmler, T.
AU  - Stroeve, J.
AU  - Toyoda, T.
AU  - Tremblay, B.
AU  - Tsujino, H.
AU  - Vancoppenolle, M.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Arctic sea ice in CMIP6
JA  - Geophys. Res. Lett.
VL  - 47
IS  - 10
SP  - e2019GL086749
DO  - 10.1029/2019GL086749
ER  -

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