Publication Abstracts

Myers et al. 2021

Myers, B.J.E, S.R Weiskopf, A.N Shiklomanov, S. Ferrier, E. Weng, K.A Casey, M. Harfoot, S.T Jackson, A.K Leidner, T.M Lenton, G. Luikart, H. Matsuda, N. Pettorelli, I.M.D Rosa, A.C Ruane, G.B Senay, S.P Serbin, D.P Tittensor, and T.D. Beard, 2021: A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation. BioScience, 71, no. 12, 1261-1273, doi:10.1093/biosci/biab094.

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{my08100s,
  author={Myers, B. J. E and Weiskopf, S. R and Shiklomanov, A. N and Ferrier, S. and Weng, E. and Casey, K. A and Harfoot, M. and Jackson, S. T and Leidner, A. K and Lenton, T. M and Luikart, G. and Matsuda, H. and Pettorelli, N. and Rosa, I. M. D and Ruane, A. C and Senay, G. B and Serbin, S. P and Tittensor, D. P and Beard, T. D.},
  title={A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation},
  year={2021},
  journal={BioScience},
  volume={71},
  number={12},
  pages={1261--1273},
  doi={10.1093/biosci/biab094},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - my08100s
AU  - Myers, B. J. E
AU  - Weiskopf, S. R
AU  - Shiklomanov, A. N
AU  - Ferrier, S.
AU  - Weng, E.
AU  - Casey, K. A
AU  - Harfoot, M.
AU  - Jackson, S. T
AU  - Leidner, A. K
AU  - Lenton, T. M
AU  - Luikart, G.
AU  - Matsuda, H.
AU  - Pettorelli, N.
AU  - Rosa, I. M. D
AU  - Ruane, A. C
AU  - Senay, G. B
AU  - Serbin, S. P
AU  - Tittensor, D. P
AU  - Beard, T. D.
PY  - 2021
TI  - A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation
JA  - BioScience
JO  - BioScience
VL  - 71
IS  - 12
SP  - 1261
EP  - 1273
DO  - 10.1093/biosci/biab094
ER  -

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