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Morgenstern et al. 2020

Morgenstern, O., F.M. O'Connor, B.T. Johnson, G. Zeng, J.P. Mulcahy, J. Williams, J. Teixeira, M. Michou, P. Nabat, L.W. Horowitz, V. Naik, L.T. Sentman, M. Deushi, S.E. Bauer, K. Tsigaridis, D.T. Shindell, and D.E. Kinnison, 2020: Reappraisal of the climate impacts of ozone-depleting substances. Gephys. Res. Lett., 47, no. 20, e2020GL088295, doi:10.1029/2020GL088295.

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry and Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Projects (AerChemMIP, RFMIP). A large intermodel spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an "emergent constraint" approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to ozone declines measured and simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period, ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. Using these analyses, we find an effective radiative forcing of -0.05 to 0.13 W/m². Our best estimate (0.04 W/m²) is on the edge of the "likely" range given by the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC of 0.03 to 0.33 W/m² but is in better agreement with two other literature results.

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@article{mo08200c,
  author={Morgenstern, O. and O'Connor, F. M. and Johnson, B. T. and Zeng, G. and Mulcahy, J. P. and Williams, J. and Teixeira, J. and Michou, M. and Nabat, P. and Horowitz, L. W. and Naik, V. and Sentman, L. T. and Deushi, M. and Bauer, S. E. and Tsigaridis, K. and Shindell, D. T. and Kinnison, D. E.},
  title={Reappraisal of the climate impacts of ozone-depleting substances},
  year={2020},
  journal={Gephys. Res. Lett.},
  volume={47},
  number={20},
  pages={e2020GL088295},
  doi={10.1029/2020GL088295},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - mo08200c
AU  - Morgenstern, O.
AU  - O'Connor, F. M.
AU  - Johnson, B. T.
AU  - Zeng, G.
AU  - Mulcahy, J. P.
AU  - Williams, J.
AU  - Teixeira, J.
AU  - Michou, M.
AU  - Nabat, P.
AU  - Horowitz, L. W.
AU  - Naik, V.
AU  - Sentman, L. T.
AU  - Deushi, M.
AU  - Bauer, S. E.
AU  - Tsigaridis, K.
AU  - Shindell, D. T.
AU  - Kinnison, D. E.
PY  - 2020
TI  - Reappraisal of the climate impacts of ozone-depleting substances
JA  - Gephys. Res. Lett.
VL  - 47
IS  - 20
SP  - e2020GL088295
DO  - 10.1029/2020GL088295
ER  -

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